Putin’s definite ‘maybe’ on ceasefire with Ukraine keeps the White House engaged

Despite initiating Europe’s worst war since Hitler and having the blood of hundreds of thousands on his hands, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is not a leader known for making big decisions quickly.

More often than not over his long tenure at the top of Russia’s power pyramid, many analysts believe Putin prefers to delay and defer rather than act decisively.

And so, when Putin’s answer finally came Thursday as to whether he would agree to a U.S.-backed Ukrainian proposal for a 30 day ceasefire, it was characteristically non-committal.

“We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities,” the Russian president said at a news conference in Moscow,  alongside Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko.

But in the next breath, Putin said a short pause in the war held little interest for him, and instead he remained committed to a “long-term peace” that would “eliminate the original causes of this crisis.”

In other words, theoretically, yes — but for the moment, no.

Details need to be sorted out — how would the ceasefire be enforced, would Ukraine be allowed to reposition its forces, and will they be allowed to re-arm?

Putin implied getting all those answers will take some time, more discussions and direct conversations with the U.S. President.

Buying time

In the meantime, the war will grind on.

Part of Putin’s strategy may be to buy his troops more time to establish more favourable front lines for a possible freezing of the conflict.

“Putin is hedging his bets,” said Mark Galeotti, a London-based Russian analyst.

“He’s delaying so his forces can complete the recapture of Kursk, he’s looking for further concessions, but he’s not saying ‘no.’ “

Over the summer, the Ukrainian military shocked Putin’s army by capturing a sizeable portion of Russian territory in Kursk, and holding it for more than six months.

But in recent weeks, as Donald Trump pushed and coerced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into committing to a ceasefire, temporarily cutting off aid and intelligence, Russia’s military — with the help of troops from North Korea — focused the brunt of their attacks on Kursk, eventually cutting off Ukrainian supply routes.

Ukrainian leaders concede they now only hold a tiny fragment of the original Russian pocket. And in his news conference, Putin said in the days ahead, the remaining Ukrainians on Russian territory would face a choice: “either surrender or die.”

Earlier in the day, Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s key foreign policy advisor, foreshadowed his boss’s remarks, saying Russia had little interest in a temporary halt to the war without any of its broader objectives being realized.

“It gives us nothing. It only gives the Ukrainians an opportunity to regroup, gain strength and to continue the same thing,” said Ushakov.

Expansive objectives

Despite suffering immense Russian casualties in the three years since his invasion and repeatedly failing to capture key territorial objectives in Ukraine, such as the capital Kyiv, Putin has given no indication that any of his expansive goals for his attack on the country in 2022 have changed.

Putin has continually demanded the “de-militarization” and “de-Nazification” of Ukraine — code for the removal of Ukraine’s current political leadership and its replacement with a Russia-friendly regime.

He has also demanded that Ukraine only field a small, rump army and abandon any aspirations to join NATO or the European Union.

Putin has further demanded NATO return to its pre-1990 configuration, leaving the Baltic States, Poland and other eastern European countries adrift. Finally, he has also insisted Ukraine recognize the four Ukrainian regions Russia captured during war as being permanently part of Russia.

They are all concessions Zelenskyy has said no Ukrainian leader could ever accept.

“We are seeing a state that is still interested in war and invasion,” said Ian Garner, a Canadian academic who now teaches in Poland and has written extensively about Putin’s regime.

“Putin’s negotiation tactic that is more about brinksmanship than compromise. This is what we’ve seen for the last 10 years,” said Garner, an assistant professor at the Pilecki Institute, a Polish think-tank.

“I suspect (Putin) is engaging in a tactic — he puts forward demands that will be unacceptable to Ukraine, and Putin therefore says to Donald Trump, ‘We’ve tried, they are being unreasonable, let’s make a deal.’ “

Garner says avoiding an outright “no” to the ceasefire keeps the dialogue with Trump going, along with the potential for re-establishing political and commercial ties between Russia and the U.S.

Trump’s comments

In his first remarks on Putin’s response, speaking from the Oval Office Thursday, Trump said he hopes Putin “does the right thing” and that the Russian leader’s statement, while “promising” was also “not complete.”

Notably, Trump also suggested discussions involving the captured territories Ukraine will lose — or possibly regain — as part of a peace deal are also taking place.

“There’s a power plant involved,” said Trump, a possible reference to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar — Europe’s largest — which is now under Russian control.

“A lot of the details of the final agreement have been discussed, so we will see if Russia is there, and if it is not it will be a disappointing moment for the world.”

Previously, Trump had said he could take steps that could wreck Russia’s economy if Putin refuses the ceasefire,  but the U.S. President has taken a far tougher stance with Ukraine, including temporarily cutting off U.S. arms shipments and intelligence sharing.

In a statement Thursday night, Zelenskyy called Putin’s statement on the ceasefire “manipulative” and an attempt to confuse and disguise the fact that he wants to continue with the invasion.

The war continues

The next moves appear to be up to Trump.

His envoy, Steve Witkoff, was meeting with Putin in Moscow Thursday night, and Trump said he was prepared to speak to Putin directly in the near future.

In the meantime, however, Russia’s invasion appears set to continue, as does Ukraine’s defence of its territory.

CBC News reached a 52-year-old Ukrainian soldier, Oleh, a former history teacher, who was wounded while fighting in Kursk.

His 26-year-old son is still fighting in the eastern Donetsk region.

Oleh underscored the immense military pressure still faced by the soldiers on Ukraine’s front lines.

“Russia has a very large fire capacity — more than we have,” he said.

“We cannot adequately respond to them. And so we have to, in principle, slowly say, retreat.”

He acknowledged that while most Ukrainian civilians want a ceasefire, soldiers are prepared for the negotiations to fail.

“We are soldiers, we will be told to fight, we will fight. But as a dad, I do not want to keep (going.)”