Israel strikes may make Iran more determined to pursue nuclear programme | Nuclear Weapons News

Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear and military sites mark a significant escalation in regional tensions and can reshape the nuclear calculation of Tehran.

Coordinated strikes have killed several senior military and security officials, including the Iranian army chief Mohammad Bagheriand the chief of the body of the Islamic revolutionary guard (IRGC), Hossein Salami.

“One of the concerns in the attack on nuclear sites was that the losses could lead Iran to reconstruct their operations with a more determined effort to obtain a means of nuclear deterrence,” said Ali Vaez, an expert in Iran for the International Crisis Group (ICG).

Validated skeptics

Iran has long had an internal debate among reformers and wrinkles on the opportunity to conclude an agreement with the United States on its nuclear program.

“”[The attacks] Probably confirmed the position of Hardliners and Ultra Hardliners who declared that Iran had wasted its time to try to negotiate with the West … They declared that Iran could never negotiate from a position of weakness and appeasement, “said Reza H Akbari, Iran analyst and the program manager of the Middle East and the North Report.

The talks between Iran and the United States suffered from a great confidence deficit after President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement between Iran and several Western nations, known as the Complete Complete Action Plan (JCPOA), during his first mandate in 2018.

The JCPOA was orchestrated by the predecessor of Trump, Barack Obama, and approved by the United Nations Security Council in 2015.

He was aimed at monitoring Iran’s nuclear program to make sure that he did not approach weapons levels. In exchange, some sanctions have been removed from Iran.

While the agreement was praised as an achievement of diplomacy, Israel has disapproved of the JCPOA. Ten years later, the United States and Iran seemed interested in concluding another similar agreement.

The former ostensibly did not want to be trained in a regional war while tensions rose through the Middle East, while the second again sought relief of the essential sanction.

But Israel’s strikes on IranWho would have been planned for months in advance and with American approval, would have scuttled any short -term diplomatic solution, Akbari said.

“It is difficult to imagine that someone in the place of the supreme chief of Iran [Ali Khamenei] Do not take the side of the carnliners after that, “he told Al Jazeera.

No other option

In response to the strikes of Israel, Iran has launched drones and ballistic missiles in Israel, with some targets striking on the ground.

In the past, Iran’s deterrence against external aggression was mainly based on its self-written “resistance axis”.

The axis was made up of powerful armed groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as Syria under former President Bashar al-Assad.

However, Hezbollah Capacities have been considerably degraded During the summit of his recent war with Israel, which lasted from September to the end of November from last year.

The fall of Al-Assad in December, the culmination of a civil war of more than a decade in Syria, also compromised the ability of Iran to reaplivinate Hezbollah across Syria, as did before.

Trump now exploits Iran’s weakness by exhorting him to capitulate an agreement that would see him abandon his nuclear program, said Michael Stephens, an expert in regional response to the Iranian nuclear program with the Royal United Service (RUSI), a defense group.

On Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran must conclude an agreement before it remains “nothing” of the country and that the next Israeli attacks will even be “more brutal”.

Later in the evening, Israel made more air strikes on Iranian military sites and nuclear facilities.

“There are no good options for [Iran] Really, ”said Stephens.

“Either Khamenei … orders its negotiators to make compromises on the nuclear file or … it holds firm [and] Other sites are affected and other targeted assassinations of senior officials take place, “he told Al Jazeera.

“Anyway, if Iran decides to sprint towards a bomb, it will be very, very difficult to do it now,” he added.

Last Stand

Despite Iran’s military weakness compared to the United States and Israel, he was wary of renouncing his nuclear program, analysts said in Al Jazeera.

Negar Mortazavi, an expert in Iran of the Center for International Policy (CIP), said that Iranian officials have long referred to the fate of former Libyan chief Muammar Gaddafi, who agreed to give up his nuclear weapon program In exchange for repairing American sanctions in 2003.

The agreement occurred after US President George W Bush launched his so-called “war on terrorism” after the attacks of September 11, 2001, which led to the invasion and the prolonged occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan.

At the time, Bush warned his partners and his enemies in the region that they were “with us or against us”.

Eight years after Gaddafi has renounced his nuclear program, the United States supported a pro-democracy uprising in Libya, which turned into an armed rebellion and led to the reversal and the possible death of Gaddafi.

“THE [Libya] The scenario is something that Iran has taken note, and they don’t want to follow this path, “said Mortazavi.

She added that Iran could probably withdraw from the JCPOA and try to quickly expand its nuclear program in response to the current assault of Israel.

“How far and how clear Iran will be expanding its nuclear program,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.