What are the worst-case scenarios?

For the moment, the fights between Israel and Iran seem to be limited to the two nations. At the United Nations and elsewhere, there have been widespread calls for restraint.

But what happens if they fall into the ears of a deaf? What if the fights degenerate and develop?

Here are some possible scenarios.

For all American refusals, Iran clearly thinks that American forces have approved and at least tacitly supported the attacks of Israel.

Iran could strike American objectives through the Middle East – such as special forces camps in Iraq, the military bases of the Gulf and diplomatic missions of the region. Iran’s proxy forces – Hamas and Hezbollah – can be much reduced, but its support militias in Iraq remain armed and intact.

The United States feared that such attacks were a possibility and withdrawn staff. In its public messages, the United States has firmly warned Iran of the consequences of any attack on American targets.

What could happen if an American citizen was killed, say, in Tel Aviv or elsewhere?

Donald Trump could be forced to act. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been accused of wanting to drag the United States to help him defeat Iran.

Military analysts say that only the United States has bombers and bunker bombs that can penetrate the deepest from Iranian nuclear installations, especially that of Fordow.

Trump promised his constituency Maga that he would not start so-called “wars forever” in the Middle East. But many Republicans support both the Israeli government and its point of view, which is the time to request a change of diet in Tehran.

But if America should become an active fighter, this would represent a huge climbing with a long, potentially devastating tail.

If Iran has not damaged the military and other targets of Israel, it could still target its missiles on softer targets in the Gulf, in particular the countries which, according to Iran, have helped and encouraged its enemies over the years.

There are many energy and infrastructure targets in the region. Remember that Iran was accused of hitting the petroleum fields of Saudi Arabia in 2019 and its Houthi proxies reached water targets in 2022.

Since then, there has been a kind of reconciliation between Iran and certain countries of the region.

But these countries are hosting American air bases. Some also – discreetly – helped to defend Israel against the attack on Iranian missiles last year.

If the Gulf was attacked, he could also demand that US war planes come to his defense as well as Israel.

What if the Israeli attack fails? What if Iran’s nuclear installations are too deep, too well protected? And if its 400 kg of uranium enriched 60% – the nuclear fuel which is only a small step of the quality of the weapons, enough for ten bombs – is not destroyed?

It is believed that it can be hidden at the bottom of the secret mines. Israel may have killed certain nuclear scientists, but no bomb can destroy the know-how and expertise of Iran.

What if Israel’s attack convinces Iran’s leadership that its only way to dissuade other attacks is to run for nuclear capacity as quickly as possible?

What if these new military leaders around the table were more stubborn and less cautious than their dead predecessors?

At the very least, it could force Israel to other attacks, potentially linking the region in a continuous series of strike and counter-fronst. The Israelis have a brutal sentence for this strategy; They call it “mowing the grass”.

The price of oil soar.

What if Iran tried to close the Hormuz Strait, more restricting the oil movement?

What if – on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula – the Houthis in Yemen redouble their efforts to attack expedition to the Red Sea? These are the latest so -called Iran proxy allies with an unpredictability experience and high -risk appetite.

Many countries of the world are already suffering from a cost of living crisis. An increase in the price of oil would add to inflation on a global economic system which already creaks under the weight of Trump’s pricing war.

And let’s not forget, the only man who benefits from the rise in oil prices is Russia President Putin who would suddenly see more dollars in the Kremlin chests to pay his war against Ukraine.

What if Israel has succeeded in its long -term objective to force the collapse of the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran?

Netanyahu says that its main objective is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity. But he clearly indicated in his declaration that his broader objective involved a change of diet.

He told “The proud people of Iran” that his attack “opened the way for you to reach your freedom” of what he called their “nasty and oppressive regime”.

Bringing down the Iranian government could call on some in the region, in particular some Israelis. But what emptiness could it leave? What unforeseen consequences would they have there? What would civil conflicts look like in Iran?

Many can remember what has happened to Iraq and Libya when the centralized Fort Government has been deleted.

So, many depends on how this war is progressing in the coming days.

How – and how much – Iran will be retaliated? And what restraint – if necessary – can the United States exercise on Israel?

On the answer to these two questions, many will depend.