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Correspondent of the State Department
President Trump’s comments on the Israeli-Iranian conflict have left full-speed support for Israeli strikes to distant themselves, and again.
His ambiguity added to the feeling of uncertainty as the fights itself degenerate – just like his departure from the G7 in Canada. He just said he had “big things” to return to Washington.
The White House said that his departure was to do with “what is happening in the Middle East”, while later, Truth Social, he said that it had “nothing to do with a cease-fire”.
Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attacks were “fully coordinated” with the United States.
So, what factors weigh on Trump and, above all, what are his options now?
While Israeli missiles struck Tehran on Thursday, Trump threatened Iran leaders with “even brighter” attacks of his Israeli ally armed with American bombs.
We know Trump’s ultimate goal. He says, like Netanyahu, that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb. Above all, he said that his favorite option (unlike Netanyahu) is via an agreement between the United States and Iran (this road also reflects its self-written image as a world class profession).
But he has ambiguous on how to get there, sometimes leaning over the threat of force, other times pushing diplomacy. Last week, he even declared in the same breath as an Israeli attack on Iran would help an agreement or that he would “blow”.
His unpredictability is sometimes represented by his supporters after the fact as a strategic – the so -called “mad” theory of foreign relations. This theory is that which has already been used to describe Trump’s negotiation tactics and suggest that deliberate uncertainty or unpredictability concerning climbing works to force adversaries (or even allies in the case of Trump) to comply. It has been attributed to some of President Richard Nixon’s Cold War practices.
Some of Trump’s advisers and supporters support the “maximum pressure” side of Madman’s theory with regard to his approach to Iran. They think that threats will finally prevail because, according to them, Iran is not serious about the negotiation (even if in 2015, the country signed a nuclear agreement led by Obama from which Trump then withdrew).
Netanyahu applied constant pressure on Trump to descend the military and non -diplomatic path, and the American president – despite his often stated desire to win the Nobel Peace Prize – can finally see the need to realize his more belligerent threats for Tehéran leaders
Israel can also push stronger behind the scenes so that American participation is, as it sees, to finish the work. The United States has Bunker Buster Israel bombs believe that the Iranium Iranium from Iranium from Irania to Fordow.
As battles degenerate, the pressure on Trump of the Republican camp in Congress has also long been a change of diet in Iran.
Trump will also see the argument that it could force Iranians to negotiate with him with a lower hand. But the fact remains that the Iranians were already at this table, like a sixth round of the talks due to the envoy of Trump, Steve Witkoff, had been planned in Oman on Sunday.
The talks are now abandoned.
So far, Trump has reiterated that the United States is not involved in Israel’s attacks.
Climbing is delivered with significant risks and potentially in terms of inheritance for Trump. American naval destroyers and ground missile batteries are already defending Israel for Iranian reprisals.
Some Trump advisers to the National Security Council should warn against him to do anything that could add to the intensity of Israel’s attacks on Iran in the immediate days, in particular with certain Iranian missiles who have violated Israeli defenses with a deadly effect.
Netanyahu now argues that the targeting of the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, would finish, will not degenerate the conflict.
But an anonymous American official informed some media on the weekend that Trump clearly indicated that he was against such a decision.
One of the major political factors playing in Trump’s mind is his domestic support.
Most of the Congress Republicans are still firmly retreating Israel, including continuous American weapons supplies in the country. Many have vocally supported Israel’s attacks on Iran.
But there are key votes within the Make America movement again (Maga) of Trump who now reject this traditional “iron” support for Israel.
In the past few days, they have asked why the United States risks being trained in a Middle East war given the promise of Trump’s foreign policy.
Pro-Trump Tucker Carlson journalist wrote a spicy criticism Friday, saying that the allegations of the administration not to be involved were not true and that the United States should “drop Israel”.
He suggested that Mr. Netanyahu “and his greedy government” act in a manner that would cause American troops to fight in his name.
Carlson wrote: “To engage in this would be a major on the faces of the millions of voters who voted in the hope of creating a government which would finally put the United States first.”
Likewise, Stauunch Trump Loyalist US representing Marjorie Taylor Greene Posted on X This: “Anyone who was moving so that the United States fully gets involved in the War of Israel / Iran is not America first / Maga”.
This represents a considerable vulnerability for Trump.
This adds pressure on him to put the distance between the United States and the offensive of Israel and there are signs, at least in public, that he replied.
The Maga debate during the weekend coincided with him by publishing on the social networks that he joined Russian President Putin to ask for the end of the war. On Sunday, he said that Iran and Israel should conclude an agreement, adding: “The United States had nothing to do with the attack on Iran”.
Iran has already threatened to attack the American bases in the region if, as happens now, Washington is attending the defense of Israel.
The risk of any American victim would probably see Maga’s isolationist argument developing exponentially, in turn, adding pressure on Trump to remove and urge Mr. Netanyahu to bring the offensive to a faster end.