Congo and Rwanda Called for a Cease-Fire in Their Deadly Conflict. What Now?

The leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda have called for a cease-fire in eastern Congo in a bid to end the latest deadly chapter in a three-decade conflict.

The surprise announcement followed an unannounced meeting in Qatar on Tuesday, and analysts said it could either signal a de-escalation in a conflict that has threatened to become a regional war, or be the latest failed attempt to bring peace to this part of Central Africa.

Presidents Félix Tshisekedi of Congo and Paul Kagame of Rwanda committed to an “immediate and unconditional cease-fire,” according to a joint statement issued with Qatar, though they did not say how the cease-fire would be carried out or monitored.

The meeting was the leaders’ most significant step since a Rwanda-backed armed groupcalled M23, captured eastern Congo’s two largest cities and large swathes of the territory in an offensive that began in January.

“This is the first time a concrete statement is coming from both leaders,” said Oluwole Ojewale, a scholar with the Institute for Security Studies who focuses on Central Africa.

The fighting has displaced more than 700,000 people since January, according to the United Nations refugee agency, and killed thousands of others.

The leaders’ meeting came a day after the European Union announced sanctions on the Rwandan government and military officials over the backing of M23. Rwanda retaliated by severing diplomatic ties with Belgium, a country that was once the colonial ruler in both Congo and Rwanda, and which has been a leading voice for sanctions on Rwanda over its involvement in the conflict.

Mr. Tokible and Mr. Undergear said in the statement that they wanted to “establish solid foundations for lasting peace” in eastern Congo, where three decades of fighting over ethnic tensions and access to land have killed millions of people.

Previous attempts at truces have failed, either because cease-fires have been violated or because the warring parties backed out of talks at the last minute — including a meeting that had been scheduled for Tuesday between Congo’s government and M23’s leadership.

M23 said on Monday that it would not participate in that gathering, which was set to be held in Angola, whose president is seen as more amenable to Congo’s cause. Instead, Rwanda’s and Congo’s presidents met in Qatar, which is a close ally of Rwanda.

“Congo might have realized that it had to make a concession,” said Jason Stearns, the co-founder of the New York University-based Congo Research Group.

M23, a group created in 2012, is armed and commanded by Rwanda’s army, according to the United Nations, the United States and the European Union. Rwanda denies backing the group and says that the violence in neighboring Congo is threatening its security.

The group, which according to U.N. estimates has 6,000 to 9,000 soldiers, now controls a Congolese area the size of Louisiana that is rich in gold and other minerals like coltan. That area includes Goma and Bukavu, two key hubs on the border with Rwanda.

It is unclear whether M23, which has denied any affiliation with Rwanda’s government, will heed the calls for a cease-fire. In the past, the group has declared unilateral cease-fires, only to violate them days later, including after its capture of Goma.

A spokesman for the group did not respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.

Neither Congo’s weak army nor international pressure, including a unanimous condemnation from the U.N. Security Council, has been able to stop M23’s advance. Rwanda’s government has held strong in its position despite Western nations’ suspension of development aid and some export activities because of its role in the conflict.

Mr. Ojewale said that the United States could have been in a position to convene peace talks, but given that it was not a priority for the Trump administration, Qatar stepped in. Previous attempts by President Emmanuel Macron of France have also failed.

“It appears now that the countries that actually have the leverage to bring warring African leaders to the table are countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. — who are completely outside the shores of the continent,” Mr. Ojewale said.

Experts say that a few options are now on the table, though none appear imminent. They include peace negotiations in Congo that could lead to a power-sharing agreement and more autonomy for eastern Congo, which is 1,000 miles from the capital, Kinshasa; the integration of M23 fighters into the Congolese army; the establishment of a buffer zone; or even Rwandan annexation of the region.

“Rwanda is in a bad place in terms of international pressure, but on the ground they’re not,” said Mr. Stearns. “This ‘no peace, no war’ situation could last for quite some time, and it’s not unfavorable to Rwanda.”