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This time, the fears of Israel on Iran’s intention to build a nuclear bomb can really be valid. Or not. And for the better or for the worst, it will be American president Donald Trump to make the decision of the facts to accept or reject.
For most of his almost 20 years at the head of Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made international concerns about the fact that his country faces the threat of “nuclear annihilation” if Iran is able to build an atomic weapon.
From 1996He proclaimed: “Time runs out.” Sixteen years later, in 2012, Netanyahu was standing in front of the UN with an almost cariant drawing of a round bomb with a fuse, urging the international community to stop the Ayatollahs of Iran before it was too late.
Finally, there are seven nights, Netanyahu gave the order to attack Iran directly, declaring that the mission is to withdraw the institutions, installations and scientists of Iran linked to its nuclear program.
“If that did not stop, Iran could take action to produce a weapon in a very short time,” said Netanyahu in a video declaration Justify your decision.
The radical campaign of Israel on air strikes in Tehran and the surrounding area has destroyed the upper level of Iranian military command, damaged its nuclear capacities and killed hundreds. Iranian reprisal strikes, on the other hand, killed at least two dozen civilians in Israel.
But completing the work of destroying the Iranian nuclear program can go beyond the capacities of Israel. With certain key components and installations enriched up to 80 meters underground, it may require heavy weapons and bombs having only by the United States
Trump – Under an intense pressure at the national level of many Republicans who want him to intervene, and perhaps an equal number who want him to stay outside the fight – said Thursday that he would make a decision in the next two weeks on the course to follow, to give Iran more time with Iran.
At least one former high -level Israeli intelligence official claims that proof of Iran’s ability and the intention to produce such a weapon of mass destruction is indisputable.
“I think the last report of Aiea (International Atomic Energy Agency) says that Iran has more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched 60%, which, if you enrich it at 90+, is sufficient for 10 nuclear aircraft, “said Sima Shine, former officer of the Israeli espionage agency Mossad who is now with the National Studies of National Security in Tel Aviv.
The only unanswered problem was Iran’s desire to build a bomb, she said, given that such a decision would surely invite a devastating Israeli response.
“Our impression was that last year, Iran’s interest in making an additional effort and achieving nuclear nuclear nuclear capacity has changed, if we compare ourselves to its previous use,” Shine at CBC News told.
She said that since the October 7, 2023 assault on Israel, Israeli attacks have critically weakened the main Iran’s proxy militias in Gaza and Lebanon – Hamas and Hezbollah. This left Iran deeply weakened, she said, forcing the Ayatollahs to change Iran’s calculations on the need to build a nuclear weapon to the project force.
Military enrichment?
Other Iranian Western observers share the assessment of Shine.
“There is no goal at all to have this level of nuclear enrichment and this stock of enriched uranium other than military,” said John Sawers, former head of the British secret intelligence service MI6, Speaking at the BBC.
The Israeli authorities have suggested that their own intelligence efforts have also revealed the evidence of Iran’s intentions, beyond what the AIEA has reported.
Citing anonymous sources, The Wall Street Journal Israeli agents have learned of Iran’s interest in developing and perfecting chain reaction explosions, which are necessary for nuclear weapons.
Megan Sutcliffe, analyst of the Sibylline private intelligence company, said that beyond the real manufacturing of a nuclear apparatus, it is also possible that Iranians work to improve the missiles and rockets that could transport a bomb.
“The AIEA does not watch this,” she said. “And therefore the intelligence to which Israel is probably referring is something to do with Iran which, possibly, the progress to test the viability of a form of delivery system.”
Doubts persist
However, in the absence of this publicly shared information, doubts persist both on the intentions of Iran and its capacities.
Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence at Trump, said at Congress earlier this year That American intelligence agencies did not think that Iran had made the armament decision to its nuclear program.
The weapon control association based in Washington, a reflection group that promotes arms control and diplomacy, has published a statement Earlier this week, denouncing any American involvement in the War of Israel against Iran.
“There was no imminent threat that Iran armed its nuclear program before the start of Israel’s attack,” he wrote.
The group argued that the American intervention could have the opposite effect – strengthening the determination of Tehran and leading it to arm its nuclear program, if it is not completely destroyed or is ultimately rebuilt.
And while the head of the IAEA judged last week that Iran had violated its non-proliferation obligations for a lack of disclosure, Raphael Grossi also declared that the global nuclear guard dog had seen no evidence that Uranium enriched with Iran was directed for military or non-civil ends.
“We cannot say that we, at AIEA, have enough credible elements that would point directly to this,” he said.
In an interview with CBC News, Iranian ambassador to Geneva reiterated the right of his country to have a nuclear program and develop enriched uranium.
“There is no evidence that Iran moves to military nuclear activities,” said Ali Bahreini. “Our nuclear activities are peaceful.”
Enriched uranium can also be used to produce medical isotopes or as fuel for nuclear power plants.
Look | On this subject on how the United States could be fired in the War of Israel-Iran:
US President Donald Trump has always denied the involvement of his country in the intensification of the conflict between Israel and Iran. But Andrew Chang explains the role that the United States has already played. Then, will the new head of South Korea save the country?
Israel nuclear program
Israel would have largely had its own nuclear weapons capacities for several decades, although the country’s official policy is deliberate ambiguity with regard to the existence of such a program.
“Essentially, it is widely recognized that Israel has a nuclear arsenal and that they also have … a nuclear submarine, which gives them a second strike capacity; the capacity to respond to a nuclear weapon dismissed towards them,” said Sutcliffe.
Israel has not signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (TNP) and has not accepted guarantees from the IAEA on some of its main nuclear activities, the Center for arms control and non-proliferation Notes.
The Washington-based group also notes that “the lack of clarity surrounding an Israeli nuclear weapons program is a key obstacle to the establishment of a free zone of mass destruction in the Middle East”.
However, most countries – including the current and historical adversaries of Israel – have generally accepted the country’s nuclear policies.
Sutcliffe said that she thought that the different treatment between Iran and Israel on their long -standing nuclear programs, repeated statements Iranian leaders of their intention to destroy Israel, if the occasion.
“Iran has characterized as a threat to Israel-both through its direct actions, but also by its support for attorney to threaten Israel,” she said.
Iran’s leaders expressed strong support so that the Palestinians are free from Israeli occupation, and he was a solid financial and military support from Hamas in Gaza.
The Palestinian authority in the West Bank, however, said on several occasions that Iran’s support in Hamas has not helped the Palestinian cause, or beneficial for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
For Trump and Netanyahu, the decision on which intelligence and analysis to go will have immense consequences – for Israel and far beyond.
Gershon Baskin, longtime defender of the peaceful coexistence between the Arabs and the Israelis and the fierce opponent of Netanyahu, said that he thought that most of the Israelis hoped that Trump will jump into the war on their side.
“They experience this kind of pride that Israel can do what he wants, wherever he wants, at any time,” said Baskin referring to the public feeling on the damage that the military of Israel inflicted on Iranian nuclear installations and the assassinations of his nuclear scientists.
But he warned internal politics could quickly move against Netayahu and his efforts to reign in his Iranian enemies, if his calculations on the return of Iran’s nuclear program.
“When we see more damage and more victims, there will be a change of mood in Israel on the justification of the war, and the need to continue this war. It is inevitable.”
