32 nations but only one man matters

NATO’s summits tend to be “pre -“, especially to present a united front.

Secretary General Mark Rutte has already settled on the menu for their meeting in The Hague: the one who will avoid an argument with the most powerful NATO member, the United States.

An engagement to increase the defense expenses of European allies is the dish that President Donald Trump wants to serve – and that is exactly what he will get. Although there will inevitably be the additional ingredients of the compromise and the fudege.

The summit will not be able to put the stitches between Trump and many of its European allies on trade, Russia and the climbing of conflicts in the Middle East.

The American president, whose mantra is America first, is not a big fan of multinational organizations.

He was also very critical of NATO – even by questioning its very foundation of collective defense. During Trump’s first term, at his first NATO summit, he reprimanded the European allies for not having spent sufficiently and because of the American “massive amounts”.

On this message, it was at least consistent.

Mark Rutte, who has a good relationship with the American president, worked hard to give him a victory.

The summit takes place at the World Forum in Hague over two days, Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

From now on, the main discussions will only last three hours and the summit declaration will be reduced to five paragraphs, apparently due to the requests of the American president.

Trump is one of the 32 managers of the defensive western Alliance, as well as the chiefs of more than a dozen partner countries.

Until now, Dutch police has set up their greatest security operation for the most expensive NATO summit, at a cost of 183.4 million euros (155 million pounds sterling; $ 210 million).

Some have suggested that the brevity of the summit is partly to respond to the American president’s attention and not to like the long meetings. But a shorter summit with fewer subjects discussed will be, more importantly, will help hide the divisions.

Ed Arnold, from the Rusi defense group, says Trump likes to be the star’s star and predicts that he will be able to claim that he forced the European nations to act.

In truth, he is not the first American president to criticize the defense expenses of the allies. But he was more successful than most. Kurt Volker, a former American ambassador to NATO, admits that some European governments do not like the way Trump has spoke – demanding that allies spend 5% of their GDP in defense.

Europe still represents only 30% of Total NATO military spending. Volker says that many Europeans now admit that they “we had to do this, even if it is regrettable that this took such a kick in the pants”.

Some European nations are already increasing their defense expenses to 5% of their GDP. Most are the countries living near Russia – such as Poland, Estonia and Lithuania.

It’s not just Trump who accumulates on pressure. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin obliges an answer.

But in reality, many NATO members will find it difficult to reach the new target. Some did not reach the target of 2%, set over ten years ago.

The Rutte compromise formula is that allies increase their basic defense expenses to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% for defense expenses.

But the definition of defense expenses seems so vague that it could be made without meaning. Rutte says that it could include the cost of the infrastructure industry – construction bridges, roads and railways. Ed Arnold, from Rusi, says that it will inevitably lead to more “creative accounts”.

Even if, as expected, the new expenditure objective is approved, some nations may have little intention to reach it – by 2032 or 2035. The scale is still clear. The Spanish Prime Minister has already called it unreasonable and counterproductive. Sir Keir Starmer couldn’t even say when the United Kingdom will spend 3% of its defense GDP. The British Prime Minister only said that it was an ambition for some time in the following Parliament. However, given the British government’s indicated policy to put NATO at the heart of the United Kingdom’s defense policy, Sir Keir will have to support the new plan.

The real danger is to interpret the demand for an increase in defense expenses as arbitrary, a symbolic gesture – or simply to bow to American pressure. He is also motivated by NATO’s own defense plans on how he would react to an attack by Russia. Rutte himself said Russia could attack a NATO country within five years.

These defense plans remain secret. But Rutte has already explained what the alliance is missing. In a speech earlier this month, he said NATO needed an increase of 400% in its air and missile defenses: thousands of other armored vehicles and tanks and millions of artillery shells.

Most Member States, including the United Kingdom, do not yet respect their NATO capacity commitments. This is why Sweden plans to double the size of its army and Germany seeks to increase its number of troops by 60,000.

The plans go into the granular details on the way in which the alliance will defend its eastern flank if Russia invades. In a recent speech, the head of the American army in Europe, General Christopher Donahue, underlined the need to defend the Polish and Lithuanian territory near the Russian enclave in Kaliningrad. He said that the Alliance had examined its existing capacities and “realized very quickly that they are not sufficient”.

However, strangely, specific discussions on Russia and the war in Ukraine will be silent. It is the only big problem that now divides Europe and America. Kurt Volker says, under Trump, the United States “does not consider Ukrainian security as essential to European security, but our European allies do it”.

Trump has already broken the UNA united front by speaking to Putin and retaining military support in Ukraine.

Ed Arnold says that litigious problems have been eliminated from the summit. Especially to avoid a schism with Trump. The leaders were supposed to discuss a new Russian strategy, but it is not on the agenda.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was invited to dinner at the top, but he will not participate in the main discussions of the North Atlantic Council.

Rotte hopes that his first summit as secretary general will be short and sweet. But with Trump in disagreement with most of his allies on Russia, the greatest threat to the alliance, there is no guarantee that it will go as expected.