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With the president Donald Trump Extraordinary decision to attack three of the key / critical Iranian nuclear sites, two questions emerge: first, how will the Iranian population react to the decision? Second, does it hurt or help the chances of changing the diet?
Of course, we will not get any answers immediately to these questions. But I think it is fair to say that history, in a not so distant past, offers an instructive guide to what could happen.
Although it is difficult at this point to answer these questions with a high degree of certainty, there is a historical analogy in which I was deeply involved which can provide information.
Trump refers to the change of diet in Iran while declaring “ to make Iran great again ” after we hit
Over 24 years ago, while working in the Administration Bill ClintonI was one of the main players advising the State Department on the situation in Serbia. There, I led efforts on the ground to demonstrate to the Serbian opposition that the president Slobodan Milosevic could be beaten.
At the time, many in the United States and Serbia thought that almost 80 days of NATO attacks and the 1999 Kosovo war had produced a rally around the effect of the flag in favor of Milosevic.
And yet, the polls that I concluded have demonstrated the opposite.
The data revealed that, despite the regime’s efforts to portray Milosevic as strong and popular, it was extremely low, with an unfavorable note of 70%.
As it was recognized In the Washington Post at the time, the strategic advice that I provided on the basis of these surveys led to the development of a campaign that quickly overturned a diet that little thought that it was so vulnerable.
This is what Iran Post-Ayatollah might look like if war with Israel led to the fall of the regime
There are striking parallels between the fall of Milosevic and the situation Khamenei regime is found today.
In both, some believe that foreign air strikes would strengthen the nationalist feeling in favor of a regime that favors the projection of a popularity aura although it is incredibly hated by its citizens.
In addition, in Serbia, we found that there was an omnipresent anger towards the government, especially on the poor state of the economy. In Iran, there is a similar dissatisfaction – if not more intense – with regard to the chronic mismanage of the economic and national policy regime.
Admittedly, the interrogation data of the interior of Iran are limited, although Stasis, a company specializing in the realization of methodologically in a dream in the country, published a survey Last October, it is revealing.
They found that nearly 8 out of 10 (78%) Iranian believe that government policies are to blame for the country’s economic struggles.
In addition, in a country of 90 million, where roughly 60% are under 30 years of age, the same survey shows that more than three -quarters (77%) of Iranians believe that “young Iranians do not see prosperity for their future in Iran”.
All this to say that, like the Milosevic regime, the Iranian government seems to have strong popular support, but below the surface, is extremely weak and vulnerable.
For many, the idea that Israel – and especially the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – could cause a change of diet in Iran is difficult to take seriously.
But, a more detailed examination of the current situation, as well as the recent history of Iran, supports the idea that Netanyahu could be more precise than not.
Consider history: since 2009, there have been 10 protest movements on a national scale, with millions of Iranians who went down the street against the government.
And although there have been a wide range of causes for these demonstrations – from obvious electoral fraud to the most recent demonstrations triggered by the murder of Mahsa Amini – They all underline generalized opposition to the current regime.
In this same vein, just as I saw in Serbia, the large number of protests and their various causes reveal significantly significant opposition which, under the right conditions, can effectively protect the diet.
To this end, when we had to actively organize these movements SerbiaThese conditions are already obvious in Iran and on a much larger scale.
Netanyahu calls on Iranian citizens to seize “the opportunity” for the change of regime
Aside from the dark future in the face of Iranian youth, the oppressive laws of the regime with regard to its nearly 44 million citizens have transformed practically half of the population into second -class citizens with few losses to get up, as hundreds of thousands have done during the MAHSA Amin 2022 demonstrations.
Emphasizing how deep the hate is towards the regime, the Iranian international has reported Receive letters expressing her thank you to Netanyahu and the Jerusalem post reported That an Iranian source said to them: “This war has considerably strengthened and revived a new optimism” among the Iranians for the change of regime.
The source of the position inside Iran continued, saying that “conversations around the capital (Tehran) are focused on the last days of the regime and that they brought it”.
Apart from Iran, the debate has already started.
On the one hand, leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as journalists like the former national security advisor John Bolton and the president of the Yorktown Institute Seth Cropsey.
These men discussed – Bolton and Cropsey in the Wall Street Journal, and Netanyahu addressed Fox News’ Bret Baier And in other forums – that this is the most appropriate time for the change of diet in Iran since the 1979 Revolution.
Given the deep reservoir of anti-regime feeling among the Iranian people, the argument goes, the best line of conduct is that the destruction by Israel of the military and the symbols of the power of the regime will give the Iranians the courage to get up, united, against the government.
On the other side of the debate, those like the French President Emmanuel Macron. Haunted by the failure of regime change efforts in Iraq and Libya, Macron questioned the possibility of succeeding in pursuing the change of diet, adage It would “train chaos”.
Some also have supported That the actions of Israel could create a “rally around the flag” and arouse nationalism among the Iranian people.
To be clear, while the two parties have legitimate arguments, based My experience in SerbiaI believe that Netanyahu and those on his side have a much stronger case.
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The Iranian government is lower than ever after Israel has destroyed almost its entire chain of command and remains in total control of the Iranian sky.
Likewise, unlike Libya and Iraq, Iran has a well -organized opposition, with a much more established sense of national unity than one or the other Iraq Or Libya has never had.
Overall, there are solid evidence that underlies the belief of Israel that the Iranian regime could fall, in particular given the extreme prudence of Israel by targeting only the symbols of the regime in order to avoid raft nationalism.
Of course, there are risks to encourage the change of diet, and it is not guaranteed at all that the next regime is that the West wants. This could very well lead to a more extreme government led by remains of Revolutionary guardian.
However, it is a similar error to reject this chance from the start. History has shown that when an oppressed people, angry with their government, will find their confidence and is supported – even only by air power – the result should not be chaos or the survival of the current government.
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He has, and could once again lead to a real change of diet.
In both cases of Iran and Serbia, there have been widespread bombings in the country and civilians, with collateral damage to the civilian population. In the Serbian case, all net results were that he strengthened the determination of the Serbian people to get rid of an authoritarian dictator – Milosevic. And in the Iranian case, if history is a guide, it will weaken an already fragile regime and, hopefully, will provide an outlet for the millions of Iranians who want a greater measure of freedom and peace in their lives.
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