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The idea of attacking the installations working to develop nuclear energy could immediately recall the worst disasters like Chernobyl and Fukushima. But experts say that even if the strikes reach crucial materials, enrichment uranium bombings are not likely to produce a large -scale nuclear disaster. Despite the concerns about generalized radiation, the AIEA keeping that it does not expect that there are consequences on health for people or the environment outside the targeted sites, “said gross in a previous update issued on Sunday.
The greatest current environmental risk of these sites, says the AIEA, is local. Uranium enrichment installations contain toxic gases and chemicals, similar to what would be stored in any large industrial chemical factory.
The equipment of the enrichment facilities, Wolfsthal says: “It is not yet to the point where it can reach a chain reaction where it can maintain a large -scale nuclear explosion.” (AIEA estimates that Iran has a stock of uranium enriched up to 60% – not yet highly Make a nuclear weapon, according to the bulletin of atomic scientists. The IAEA pointed out in January that it had found a small amount of uranium significantly more enriched to the Fordow site.) Wolfsthal compares the damage that strikes on sites like Natanz can cause a car accident analogs.
“There is gasoline in your car,” he says. “You have a collision with your car or an accident, you could have a fire, it could even explode. There is toxic equipment that could be released. But it will be quite limited damage.”
There is a chance, he adds, that attacks against Isfahan could have damaged the barrels holding gas from uranium, a radioactive chemical compound, which could spread in the area. But the damage caused by such an explosion is likely to be limited.
“It’s just a large heavy gas molecule, so it will not go very far,” said Emily Caffrey, director of the health physics program at the University of Alabama in Birmingham, said ABC News.
There is an installation in Iran which could cause significant damage if they are affected. The only commercial nuclear reactor in Iran is located near the city of Bushehr; The site contains thousands of kilograms of nuclear materials undergoing chain reactions to produce fuel. (Research reactors, like those of Isfahan, use much less fuel than commercial reactors and operate at much lower temperatures, which makes them less dangerous in the event of an accident.) comments Delivered one day before the American strikes, Grosi said that a strike on the factory “could lead to a great release of radioactivity to the environment”. The Israeli government said last week that its own strikes touched Bushehr, but Israeli officials later remote these claims.
“In my technical assessment, attacking a nuclear reactor is really, really, really, really stupid,” explains Wolfsthal.
There is also a greater and more long -term environmental threat: the chance that Iran takes the last stages following these attacks to build a nuclear weapon.
“He is not lost for anyone that Israel and the United States both have nuclear weapons and attacked Iran, which does not do so,” said Wolfsthal. “Russia has nuclear weapons and Ukraine does not do so. North Korea, which has nuclear weapons, is pretty. The message here is that nuclear weapons bring you security and immunity and allow you to take measures against your opponents. It is a very dangerous message that we send to countries that were about nuclear options and could now decide to continue them. ”
On Monday, gross remarks echoed this concern.
“One thing is certain, and it is the simple truth: we will not be more sure if there are more nuclear weapons in more states in the world,” he said.
