What does the widening military conflict in Iran mean for oil prices? Here’s what the experts say.

THE American militations strikes in Iran Return questions about the impact on the petroleum and gas industry, especially if conflict widening could increase energy prices for Americans.

Oil prices jumped 4% Sunday evening shortly after the negotiation start, but retired when the experts hypothesized that he will probably not close the Hormuz StraitA large commercial navigable way that the country in part controls and which is strategically vital for the flow of crude to the global markets.

However, the geopolitical crisis arouses concerns that the worsening of hostilities could lead to the world’s supply of oil, which would probably increase gas costs and other energy costs, as well as other refined products from crude. Iran said on Monday that it launched an attack On the air base of the United States, in Qatar, with witnesses saying to several press agencies that they saw what seemed to be missiles across the country.

Iran, a large gross producer, controls the north side of the Hormuz Strait, which is used by ships carrying around 20% of the world’s daily supply of oil.

“In practice, Iranian efforts to” close “the strait could include a certain number of actions, including the attack and detention of ships using the navigable track, hampering navigability through the Strait and, at the most extreme, economists from the Sea of ​​the Sea.

But, he added, “[S]O As long as the conflict does not become a lasting war without “ out of ramp ” and that the disturbance of the strait remains limited to lower level actions seen so far, we suspect that any initial peak in world energy prices would dissipate for a long time. “”

Here’s what you need to know On Iranian conflicts Potential impact on oil and gas prices.

What is the impact so far on oil prices?

After increasing the first exchanges on Monday, the prices of Brent Brude, the international standard, fell 0.1% to $ 76.98 at noon. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Brut, the American reference, dropped 3.8% to $ 71.06.

However, oil prices remain above their level before hostilities between Israel and Iran started more than a week ago, when a barrel of crude WTI was nearly $ 68.

Although Wall Street experts predict that Iran is unlikely to close the Strait of Hormuz, they note that current tensions in the region could disrupt the energy market and send prices in the area.

“Perhaps a greater risk for the oil supply of the region would be Israeli air strikes on Iranian oil production and export facilities, and / or attacks by Iranian proxy groups on oil production and export facilities in Iraq,” said Eurasia group analysts in a report on June 23.

Israel has so far avoided targeting the Iranian oil export industry. But if he did it, such strikes could disrupt the flow of several million barrels per day, sending gross prices from Brent over $ 80 per barrel, according to the consulting firm in political risks.

What would happen if the Hormuz Strait was closed?

Because the Hormuz Strait has only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, it is vulnerable to disturbances. The canal connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Oman Sea.

Although energy experts think that a closure of the strait is unlikely, noting that the unfavorable economic and geopolitical impact on Iran, they point out that an oil flow disturbance through the passage would send energy prices.

The interruptions of oil passing through the canal would have an impact on the markets in China, India, Japan and South Korea, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the American energy department.

The United States only matters 7% of its oil in the Hormuz Strait. But any interference with expeditions crossing the area could have an impact on the world oil market by stifling supplies, according to experts.

“”[W]Hile Iran has not yet targeted the route, even a limited disturbance would have an impact on the global offer, “said Oxford economy analysts in a customer note on June 20.” In the worst case, prices could increase a barrel at $ 130 and shave 0.8 percentage point of global GDP. “”

The last time Brent Crude exceeded $ 130 was in 2008, the result of a peak demand for energy and uncertainty in global energy supplies, according to at EIA. At the time, gasoline prices culminated at around $ 4.11 Gallon, or about $ 6.26 Gallon today after adjusting inflation.

What are the forecasts for American gas prices?

American drivers will probably see higher gas prices for the pump over next week, prices jumping between 10 cents and 15 cents Le Gallon, said Gasbuddy’s analyst Patrick Dehaan.

“Most / all recent and expected increases are due to tensions / situation of the Middle East,” he said in an email at CBS Moneywatch.

Even with this increase, American drivers would probably pay less to the pump than they were a year ago. The average price of American gas now amounts to $ 3.22 the gallon, against $ 3.45 per year a year earlier, according to AAA.