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A few hours before Iran reached an American military base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the attack on three of its nuclear facilities, US President Donald Trump said some experts feared that history repeats themselves.
In an article on his social medial platform Truth Social on Sunday afternoon, Trump wrote: “Why would there not be a regime change ???”
For Mohamad Tavakoli-Targhi, professor of close civilizations and from the Middle East at the University of Toronto, the answer is existential.
If the United States had to overthrow the Iranian government-once again-Tavakoli-Targhi said: “It will create a larger chaos in the Middle East than that which could imagine.”
This scenario is now less likely following Trump’s assertion in a position on Monday evening than Iran and Israel – which began to bomb Iranian nuclear and military sites – June 13 – have concluded a ceasefire agreement. But it would not be the first time that the United States has been involved in a conflict in Iran.
Look | The change of regime in Iran “not a serious policy option” for us, the analyst says:
Richard Haas, a former head of the US State Department, said President Donald Trump has made no favor in the United States, thinking about the regime change in Iran. Haas says it is not a viable strategy and can invite more reprisals to the Middle East nation.
What happened in 1953?
In 1953, A coup orchestrated by the CIA Forced the first democratically elected leader, Mohammad Mosaddegh, forced to spend the rest of his supervised life. He also led, according to experts who spoke with CBC News, to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and to the repressive government which governs the country today.
But replacing this government through the external forces would plunge the region in addition to troubles, they say.
“I just don’t understand the match plan,” said Lucan Way, professor of democracy at the University of Toronto. “My instinct is that it would make a fairly unpopular diet more popular.”
Documents declassified by the CIA in 2013 revealed that the American intelligence organization overthrew Mosaddegh, the Iranian Prime Minister, in August 1953, by organizing sympathetic riots at Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran.
Mosaddegh was arrested, then found guilty of treason before the Shah’s military court. Pahlavi restored power to his monarchy, which was sympathetic to Western interests, namely British control of Iranian oil reserves.
Mosaddegh was elected to the promise to nationalize Iranian oil. At the time, the Anglo-Iranian oil company belonging to the British (now known as the BP) shared only a small amount of its profits with the country, with increasing dissatisfaction.
Red Frure of the 50s
While the United States initially supports the aspirations of Mosaddegh and its liberal government, it began to fear that it could be forced to communism by the Soviet Union, with which it has contributed to the power in the world.
The initiatives whose objectives were to restore to the people, in particular in the formerly colonized states, were easily considered by Western countries as stages towards communism and therefore a threat to their interests, said Wilson Chacko Jacob, professor of history at Concordia University in Montreal.
“The United States saw its efforts of the post-second world war to strengthen the allies to defend what it would be” freedom “, freedom of capital to move around the world,” he said. “And of course, most of this capital rested with the United States at the end of the Second World War.”
The 1950s were also a time when decolonization “was not a complete data,” said Jacob. The old colonial powers, like Great Britain, tried to preserve the power of foreign countries. “This [was] mainly a defense of world capitalism. “”
Today, Israel is considered by many to retain American interests in the region. Others, however, consider President Benjamin Netanyahu as causing more troubles because of his own expansionist actions, such as the Westtholian growth colonies occupied by Israeli and now, trying to take control of Gaza.
“At the heart of the conflict [between Israel and Iran] is the ideological and political commitment of the Iranian states towards the creation of the Palestinian state. Otherwise, Iran is far from Israel [and] Has no reason to worry about Israel, “said Tavakoli-Targhi.
Fears of nuclear development
While the threat in the 1950s, in the eyes of the United States and the United States, may have been communism and the Soviet Union, Tavakoli-Targhi said that the perceived threat has evolved towards “Islamic fundamentalism, terrorism and nuclear weapons”.
Israel considers Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, but he and the way to the University of Toronto note that Israel has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which entered into force in 1970, but Iran did it.
Although it is logical “that Israel would like to deal with Iranian nuclear capacities, Way said that Ukraine’s invasion by Russia has created growing sympathy for states that have no nuclear weapons.
“Unless you are a large country with a large army that can defend its border, nuclear weapons are a much cheaper option as a kind of font against the foreign invasion,” he said.
After Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, regained control of the Iranian Parliament in 1953, he struggled to gain legitimacy within his borders, and a religious movement defended by Ruhollah Khomein began to gain acceptance – which finally led to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.
“Part of what brought the current regime to power was this type of anti-American, which was very anchored in 1953,” said Way.
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