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US President Donald Trump spent a large part of Wednesday and early Thursday morning to refute disclosed reports of his own defense intelligence agency that the American bombing of Iranian nuclear installations last weekend had only done minimum damage, and that the Iranians had been able to move the Uranium of the sites before the strikes.
“Nothing was removed from [the] Installation, “Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday, the addition” would take too much time, too dangerous and very heavy and difficult to move! “”
This follows a statement Wednesday evening by CIA director, John Ratcliffe, who said that “credible intelligence” has shown that Iranz nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan had been seriously damaged and that he would take years – not months – to rebuild several key installations.
Ratcliffe’s declaration, which, according to him, was partly based on the new intelligences of a “historically reliable and precise source”, was the last drop of information intended to strengthen the American argument according to which the air strikes paralyzed the capacity of Iran to build a nuclear weapon.
In a live address to the nation on Saturday the day after strikes, Trump proclaimed that the main nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran were “completely and completely erased”.
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In the confused and tumultuous debate on the extent of damage to nuclear sites, a wider question is looming: where is now enriched uranium of Iran?
Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, program director at the Vienne Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, says that it is not clear what has become of Iranian 400 kilograms enriched with 60%uranium.
“”We really don’t know where this material is, “she told CBC News via Zoom.” Did all this survive attacks? Have some of them survived attacks? We do not know, and for the moment, Iran does not provide this information. “”
Iran, which recognizes that its nuclear installations have been “seriously damaged”, claims to have moved its uranium enriched before the American strikes on weekends.
Satellite imaging shows that on June 19, 16 loading trucks were at the entrance to the deeply buried Fordow nuclear site. Three days later, in the early hours of Sunday morning, he was affected by several bombs, called massive ammunition penetrators, each of which weighed 13,000 kilograms.
Except IAEA
Before the United States is directly involved in strikes, Israel said it was aimed at Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, as well as security and scientists, since June 13.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that Iran has told the United Nations nuclear agency that it had taken special measures to protect its stock.
Grossi asked Iran to authorize the IAEA inspectors, but Wednesday, the country’s parliament voted to suspend cooperation with the United Nations Agency. This step was approved by the country Guardian Thursday and will now be subject to President Masoud Pezeshkian for final ratification. The bill would prevent inspectors from access to sites until specific conditions are met.
Iran is still a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and is legally required to cooperate with AIEA; If this is not the case, it could be found in violation of its obligations. But Mukhatzhanva says that it is not that EAEA can do to force Iran’s cooperation.
The United Nations Security Council could take measures, but Iran is already sanctioned, and Russia, which has a strategic partnership with Tehran, has a veto.
“So what is the plan, then-to have Israel and perhaps the United States periodically bomb Iran in submission? It is not very lasting,” said Mukhatzhanva.
When asked Wednesday if he would move again if Iran had rebuilt his nuclear enrichment program, Trump replied: “Of course”.
Mukhatzhanva says that because the Complete Complete Action Plan (JCPOA) signed in 2013 – colloquially known as the Iranian nuclear agreement – has never been properly applied, there is not a clear image of the centrifugal stock of Iran.
The agreement was promulgated under the American president Barack Obama, but the American president Donald Trump described him as “horrible” and “unilateral” and withdrew from him during his first mandate.
“A very sensitive situation now”
A few hours before Israel began its air strikes on Iran in mid-June, Tehran said that he had built and would activate a third nuclear enrichment site. The announcement came after the IAEA had Censored Iran Not to comply with non-proliferation obligations and to provide “less satisfactory” cooperation.
IAEA inspectors did not have the chance to go to the new Iran enrichment site. Mukhatzhanva says it is not clear if Iran has centrifuges that can be installed and start working elsewhere.
“It will not take long to enrich the 60% [uranium] More than 90%, which is considered to be of arms quality, “she said.” This is a very sensitive situation now. “”
Some of the Iranian media have seized the cover of a disclosed Preliminary American intelligence assessment which seemed to contradict Trump’s claims that the Fordow nuclear site was erased.
A point of sale said that “Trump’s lie had appeared”, while another said that it became a great scandal for him.
In a statement published on X on Thursday, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard supported Trump’s claims, saying that three nuclear installations in Iran were destroyed and would take years to rebuild.
‘A huge loss of capacity’
The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mohammed Eslami, the chief of his atomic energy organization, said that Iran would revive his nuclear program.
Joseph Rodgers, deputy director and member of the project on nuclear issues of the Center for Strategic and International Studies based in the United States, said that it was “clear” what effect the Israeli strikes in the United States “had” on the basis of knowledge of Iranian scientific leadership “.
“Israel has targeted many key leaders in the nuclear program, as well as in military programs, it is therefore a huge loss of capacity.”
A complete evaluation carried out by the Institute of International Science and SecurityWho analyzed the satellite imagery of the attacks, concluded that it will take a long time before Iran arrives anywhere “near the capacity” that he had before.
However, the report also said that Iran could use the material and parties that were not destroyed to produce weapon quality uranium.
Laura Holgate, former American AIEA ambassador, told CBC News Network on Wednesday if Iran could continue to produce enriched uranium, it would only take weeks for it to have required enough for a nuclear weapon.
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But its ability to put this on a missile is not well understood, and it would be completely on a different chronology.
“I’m really more worried than a week ago. [enriched uranium] It is not a normal status, so there is a potential that it could be stolen or lost in a way, “said Holgate.” Even more worrying … is the potential for IAEA to lose its access to the Iranian program. “”
Mukhatzhanva says that Israeli action could end up having the opposite of its planned effect.
The attacks “could convince … the political elites in Iran, the management, that they must absolutely have nuclear weapons”.
