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An oil tanker is represented in the Persian Gulf near the city of the Sea of Bushehr, in the province of Bushehr, in southern Iran, on April 29, 2024.
Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty images
For years, China has built Iranian oil at a reduced price in bulk, and the American sanctions on Tehran have barely put a breach in this profession, said that analysts, thanks to a transhipment ghost supply chain and a payment system labeled in Yuan which bypasses the US dollar.
Chinese customs have not shown no oil shipped from Iran since July 2022. The monitoring data of the KPLER analysis company, however, said that Iranian gross imports in China have continued to increase since then, doubled almost 17.8 million barrels per day (MBD) in 2024 from the 2022 level.
In the first five months of this year, these imports remained at a high level of 6.8 MBD, few changed compared to the same period in 2024.
China is still the largest consumer in Iranian crude from afar. The US Energy Information Administration suggested in A report in May The fact that almost 90% of gross oil exports and Iran condensates continued to flow to China.
Iran faced some of the the widest sanctions that the United States has imposed In any country, Washington sought to suffocate the main source of income for the regime that was used to finance its nuclear program and its militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The Trump administration was actively imposing Frames for oil tankers Involved in the facilitation of Iranian crude in China.
Nevertheless, this has put a little strike on Iranian oil exports, said Brian Leisen, global energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets, who added that “the physical market has not experienced any long -term impact on the flow of Iranian oil since the [Trump] The administration has taken office. “”
It is estimated that the sales of Iranian oil and petrochemicals generated up to $ 70 billion in 2023, according to a US Congress Report Last year.
Foreign oil buyers are attracted to Iranian oil exporters because they are often sold at reduced prices compared to Russian suppliers in the Persian Gulf or at a price.
Iranian light oil was exchanged at $ 6 $ to $ 7 cheaper than the United Arab Emirates, high zakum raw – an unanctuated note and a quality similar to Iran Light – $ 64 per barrel, Muyu Xu, main petroleum analyst in Kpler on Thursday.
Shadow
The independent refineries of China, called “theorsers”, have been the main cheap Iranian crude buyers in recent years, such as major private refiners and public enterprises are still avoiding sanctioned crude, several industry analysts said.
These teapots often buy Iranian crude on a delivered basis, which means that sellers would organize the car by sea instead of delivery, protecting Chinese buyers from the risk of transport, noted XU.
While some Iranian cargoes are dispatched directly from Iran to China, the majority undergo several transfers of ship ships, often in the Gulf of the Middle East or the Strait of MalaccaWhere Iranian oil transported by sanctioned ships is transferred to non -sanctioned oil tankers before shipment to China.
“”[The] The Middle East is a multi-body oil market and if the cargo is transported from one ship to another, it is not easy to trace the switched documents once, “said Punit Oza, president of the Institut des Courts-Naisers chartered.
The oil tankers loaded in Iran would also do what is called “usurpation” – where they disseminate information on the road to fake oil trees to hide their involvement in this profession, analysts said.
These payments are generally made in Renminbi and Through small banks sanctioned in the United StatesProtecting buyers from exposure to the system dominated by the US dollar, which avoids exposing major international banks in China at the risk of American sanctions.
“Because there is no exposure to a dollar, being excluded from SWIFT payment systems does not take a big obstacle for oil flows to continue,” said Brian. Swift is the main global international payment network, dominated by the greenback.
“ Usurpation ” in Malaysia
The area east of the Malaysian peninsula has seen animated ship’s ship’s activities and is a “hot spot for Iranian oil”, where crude oil is transmitted to other ships before being in China, said Bridget Diakun, principal risk analyst and compliance with the Lloyd list.
“I have seen many oil tankers usurging their location off the coast of Malaysia, these ships taking an additional precaution to hide the Navire ship and obscure the origin of the cargo,” said Diakun.
While the United States continued to intensify the sanctions, Iranian oil owners and maritime transport operators would take additional measures to make the supply chain “more complicated and monitoring of ships more confusing” to continue these trades, added Diakun.
China’s gross imports from Malaysia increased considerably last year to 1.4 million barrels per day, compared to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023, which exceeded the interior production of crude oil of Malaysia of approximately 0.6 million, according to EIA.
Potential relief?
President Donald Trump earlier this week Surprised markets with a message On Truth Social that China can continue to buy Iranian oil, in an apparent contempt for its previous policies aimed at sitting Iran’s oil exports. American crude oil price Tumbled 6% after His comment.
A senior White House official told CNBC later that Trump’s comments do not indicate a relaxation of American sanctions.
The XU of KPLER considered Trump’s comments as a “calculated compromise”, aimed at encouraging Iran to maintain the ceasefire and re-engage nuclear talks, while signaling “Goodwill” in China before the next series of commercial negotiations.
“It is now too early to say if it indicates a potential renunciation of Iranian sanctions,” she said, noting the possibility that Washington slows down the pace of new sanctions-which would further support these purchases by Chinese teapots.
Although there is still “no clear conclusion for Iran despite the ceasefire, for the physical oil market, we expect oil exports to continue as usual,” noted Brian de RBC.
Speaking at a press conference at the top of NATO this week, Trump said that Iran “would need money to put this country in shape”, which makes hope that a relaxation of the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran could be on the table.
