Deep inside economy, more sticker prices start to go up due to tariffs

On the surface of the American economy, prices are higher. THE Latest inflation data From the government on Friday, of the government, showed a greater increase than forecasts. Nike said on Thursday that it had taken $ 1 billion due to prices and the fact that Price increases have not yet been implemented.

Within the American economy, in distribution networks that manage the inventory, there are fewer articles overall due to the trade war, but more goods on which the prices of the stickers increase.

“We now see several customers increasing prices,” said Ryan Martin, president of distribution and the realization of his logistics.

Although the price labels are placed on the manufacturer’s items, Martin said during the last month that his business began to cover “millions of product units for many customers”, “items ranging from clothing to consumer products in the warehouse preparing for possible delivery or immediate transport to stores.

According to the product, price increases vary from 8% to 15%, he said.

“It creates additional inflation,” said Martin. This also happens in electronic commerce, he said, although the price change is reflected online, not on the product.

A new survey of shoe distributors and American retailers for T2 shows that 55% of respondents expect their average retail price between 6% and 10% in 2025 due to prices.

Martin says that the last time he saw this quantity of re-relief was during the pandemic, and it was much higher at the time.

“Everything became more expensive at that time, transport, labor and quantities of products,” he said. “We have seen increases in all products, including food and drinks,” he said. “Re-Ticket was between 30% and 40%.”

It’s not just higher prices but less inventory

With current concerns about commercial uncertainty and consumer’s sweetness, retailers and manufacturing customers manage stocks by narrowing the number of SKU and important less SKU they keep. The Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that gross domestic product decreased by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025.

“The global inventory imprint is smaller,” said Martin. “You look at three months of inventory now against six.”

Data on the supply chain of the warehouse sector and the growing number of empty shipping containers in ports point to a high softer season (the summer accumulation of the inventory for rear and vacation sales periods).

The warehouse inventory levels are down 6% of months in months, according to the logistics managers index.

By comparing the readings of the first half of June until later in the month, stocks growth began to slow down, which suggests that an increase in early June was temporary, according to Zachary Rogers, associate professor of management chain at Colorado State University. “Due to the time you need inventories to move around in systems, we have not yet seen big changes in transport,” said Rogers. “The capacity of the warehouse has gone from a slight contraction to a slight expansion.”

The data for the full month of June has not yet entered, but Rogers said that it is very unlikely that the results change significantly. “We are far enough for us to know essentially where they will end,” he said.

Rogers explained that the light expansion observed earlier in the month was in accordance with the containers that were treated in the ports. American importers hesitated to advance the orders of ocean freight because of the prices. The 50% price on Chinese products is still too high for many retailers, even after a recent break in the president of higher prices Donald Trump threatened with Chinese goods.

The ports of the west coast now see a bump In the containers that start to arrive for the holidays. But on the basis of the port of Los Angeles Optimizer, which follows the ocean trade intended for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the imports of July will be less than July 2024.

“This is remarkable because July passing in August, it is when we expect to see the figures increase,” said Rogers.

On the east coast, the situation is different.

The port of New York and New Jersey, the largest port on the East Coast, published its monthly data on Thursday in May, showing the processed port 774,698 equivalent units of twenty feet, or EVP.

“The prices will certainly not have an impact on as much as they will be on the west coast because we do not depend as much on China as our counterparts on the west coast,” said Bethann Rooney, director of the Port of New York and New Jersey, in CNBC. “We have already found an increase in volumes in Europe, Southeast Asia, India and Vietnam. I do not plan a significant increase in July, but we will see strong volumes.”

But Rooney added that the change is relatively low with regard to the re-recessing of supply chains the supply to Europe and Southeast Asia. “We may see a change of 1% from one year to the next,” she said. “Cumulatively, it has an impact. But we certainly do not see a huge change in routing, although it is clear that many beneficial freight owners [U.S. companies] change their supply or diversifying their source. “”

Empty shipping containers are seated in ports longer

Another leading indicator of future freight orders is the movement of voids. The empty trade in containers is necessary to maintain the moving export flow. The CNBC analysis of empty containers shows that there is no precipitation of voids leaving the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to return to be filled.

During the pandemic, the voids were a return priority in Asia so that they could be filled and exported to the United States.

“The fact that so many empty containers are always seated in the ports also suggest that importers do not expect our normal August-September season,” said Rogers.

Trucking and storage will see a certain activity at the level of large / distribution throughout the third quarter, thanks to the wave of goods in the ports, these goods finally moving to the retailers in September and October. But Rogers added: “At this stage, however, it seems highly improbable that we will see a high normal season.”

“Even at present, we already have a ton of inventory in hand, and with the rates that are still in place, I would expect imports, especially those related to manufacturing, are lower than what we expected at the beginning of the year,” he said.

Another warning panel is a spectacular drop in the average ocean freight rate on the trans-Pacific road from the Far East to the American West Coast from a previous peak in June. The average ad hoc rates have dropped from the Far East to the American West Coast of 39% since June 1, according to Peter Sand, chief analyst of expeditions at Xeneta. “The transpacific on the American West Coast is the key battlefield for carriers with regard to China exports, so that cash rates have fallen harder and faster because they have priority to bring the capacity of this trade after the drop in tariffs of 145%,” he said.

Sand said that it was just a matter of time before the sender did the same on the east coast of the United States, and that punctual rates are also starting to fall into it.

This withdrawal of orders is closely monitored by economists. Oxford Economics wrote in a recent note that on the import side, consumer goods continued to fall with a drop of $ 4.3 billion after the drop of $ 33 billion in April. “This has been partially offset by an automobile gain, while other categories were mostly unchanged. We expect imports to be lower during the year while effective rate rates remain high and the economy will slow down,” he said.

“Indecision is the best decision at the moment with sender because of all pricing speeches,” said Martin. “No one knows what will happen tomorrow or understands the cost structure. It is better to have Lean stocks in this case,” he added.

Fixed: warehouse inventory levels are down 6% of months in months, according to the logistics managers index. An earlier version of this article destroyed the name of the index.