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After 12 consecutive months with temperatures of 1.5 C above the average of 1850-1900, the temperature of the earth has now dropped-thanks in part to the end of a natural cycle.
According to Berkeley Earth, a non -profit climate analysis organization, the global average temperature was 1.33 C above the pre-industrial average In May, and the European Copernicus Climate Service (CCCS) found that the The monthly average was 1.40 C above the pre-industrial average. (Climate agencies around the world use different methods to analyze global temperatures, hence the difference).
Although it may seem good news, the fact is that 2025 is still on the right track to be one of the first three hottest years ever recorded, according to Zeke Hausfather by Berkeley Earth.
“El Niño being firmly finished, it is very unlikely at this stage that 2025 will establish a new disc, but I always think that it is the favorite of the ratings of being the second most registered, and it is practically certain to be as many people as possible the hot year,” said Hausfather.
El Niño, natural cyclic warming in a region of the Pacific Ocean which, associated with the atmosphere, can cause an increase in global temperatures, began in the middle of 2023 then culminated in 2024, which could explain part of the record heat that Perplex climatologists.
What was particularly interesting during the month of May is that earthly surface temperatures fell a little compared to previous months. However, it was still the hotter second ever recorded, after 2024.
Hausfather said that the clear drop could have been “internal variability” which had maintained the temperatures of the high terrestrial surface and that last month was perhaps the result of the end of this variability.
An important thing to keep in mind with regard to what we can expect in terms of 2025 by making the records, winter is when we see the biggest temperature anomalies, said Hausfather. It could therefore push 2025 even higher than what we see now.
On the road to the 1.5 C warming trend
Ocean temperatures have partially decreased due to the end of El Niño, but remain close to record heights. In May, the average ocean temperatures were 0.99 C above the average of 1850-1900, according to Berkeley Earth.
“For the moment, we see, or we have just seen him, an important oceanic wave in the North Atlantic,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
“”[Ocean temperatures are] Cleaner than last year and the previous year, but it is warmer than all other years we have in the file. It is therefore one of those things where it depends [whether] We like to see the glass half full or half empty. It is always a very hot ocean. “”
Although the land has reached an average of 12 months of 1.5 C, this does not necessarily mean the failure of the objective of the Paris Agreement to maintain global warming below a threshold of 1.5 C. This should occur over a longer period, although there is no delay defined in the agreement. The climate is examined over long periods, generally covering 20 or 30 years.
The carbon budget is exhausted
However, A study published Wednesday In the journal Earth System Science Data, noted that – if the emissions continue at 2024 prices – we have only three years before exhausting our carbon budget to continue to warm this 1.5 C.
“Record greenhouse gas emissions quickly reduce the chances of limiting warming to 1.5 C,” said Jeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at the Center for Environmental College, Imperial College and co-author of the report.
“The window to stay less than 1.5 ° C firm quickly. Global warming already affects the lives of billions of people around the world.”
Although this threshold may be raped, climatologists like to emphasize that Each tenth of degree counts.
But to continue to warm up below 2 C – the threshold initially established by the Paris Agreement – there must be a concerted effort to considerably reduce CO2 emissions, such as Antonio Guttes, Secretary General of the United Nations, continuously stressed.
Buonempo said he hoped that the tools we have today will at least help us manage the results of the temperature rise.
“I am optimistic. I have always been optimistic, and my feeling is that, you know, there are many positive points in this terrible situation, including the fact that we have never had so much information on our planet,” said Buonempo.
“We have never had so much knowledge and tools to model the consequences of what is going on now. I mean, the decision is ours, right?”
