Analysts scratching their heads over Israel-Iran conflict

Analysts find it difficult to predict the extent to the climbing conflicts of Israel and Iran could influence oil prices.

Israel surprise attack On Friday, Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure was followed by five days of spiral war between regional enemies.

US President Donald Trump Tuesday, called to one “unconditional surrender“From Tehran, warning Washington’s patience wore thin. In response, Iran’s supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threat The United States with “irreparable damage” in the event of military intervention, according to NBC News Reporting.

The energy markets weigh the probability of direct involvement of the United States in the conflict, as well as the potential for major supply disturbances – in particular the worst scenarios, such as Iran blocking the Hormuz highly strategic strait which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM oil broker, said on Wednesday that a “discomfort of discomfort” had been down the oil markets in recent days.

“Our market is settling in a world where the exchanges of missiles are common, but the cynicism of it is normal has not yet been due to the ease with which the situation could degenerate,” said Evans in a research note.

Bazan oil refinery complex of Israel Supported damage of an Iranian attack earlier this week, while a Israeli air tride In the South Pars field, the largest gas field in the world, prompted Tehran to partially suspend production. The South Pars gas field is shared between Iran and Qatar.

“The situation is as fluid as the underlying goods that it mainly affects and although there is a fraternal” your supposition is [as] Good that mine ‘in the future price divination, positioning will continue to be at least on the defensive, “said Evans de PVM.

Chiefs of the Directorate of Oil Companies Total energy,, Shell And Investigate CNBC said on Tuesday that other attacks on critical energy infrastructure could have serious consequences For supply and world prices.

International benchmark Brent The gross term contracts with the August delivery negotiated from 0.3% to $ 76.69 per barrel at 2:02 p.m. London time. WE West Texas Intermediate The term contracts with July delivery, on the other hand, increased by 0.5% to $ 75.25 per barrel.

According to Lekander, founder of the investment management company, Clean Energy Transition, described the situation of the oil markets before the attack on Israel against Iran last week as “bad”, given the abundant growth of the supply of producers of OPEC and non-livep and a gentle demand.

“I was more and more convinced that we are heading for a 2014/2020 reset lower at $ 30 to $ 50 to reduce the CAPEX and start a new cycle. In fact, the current conflict makes this result even more likely when [the] The conflict is finished while producers produce now and hide as much as they can, “said Lekander in a note.

“While it happens, it’s a roulette. We have $ 10 [per barrel] Risk bonus in the price which is fair since there are clearly certain interruptions (mainly Iran exports and some charges of lower oil trees), “he added.

“We are stabilizing at the moment. I think we are waiting for this next title to come out and really, I think anyone who does not think that the oil can go higher, I really think they exchange on hope and not on reality,” said Schork in CNBC “Access to the Middle East. “”

“We are now faced with the greatest threat to the oil markets since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 and perhaps even larger than the 1974 Arab embargo,” he added.

Schork said there was about 5% that the prices of oil climbing more than $ 103 per barrel in the next five weeks, with much longer chances of gross up on $ 160 per barrel at the end of the summer, if the flows of the Persian Gulf are seriously disturbed.