Hezbollah watches on as Iran and Israel battle, for now | Israel-Iran conflict News

Beirut, Lebanon – When Israel attacked Lebanon in September 2024, Fatima Kandil left his home in the southern suburbs of Beirut, known familiarly as Dahiyeh. While the area supported a large Israeli scale air strikeMany Lebanese leak Dahiyeh for other parts of the country or, like Kandil, looked for refuge in Iraq.

Almost seven months after the November ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah-an agreement called Lebanon Israel has violated several times – The rockets light up again the night sky. But this time, Hezbollah is not involved. Instead, Israel and Iran exchange direct military attacks.

“We do not know how it all ends, so we are undoubtedly tense,” Kandil told Lebanon, Al Jazeera. However, she added that she had a feeling of satisfaction to see missiles rain on Israel. “Our revenge is taken,” she said.

While Kandil’s feeling is shared by some in Lebanon, others – those who see Iran’s support in Hezbollah, a group that dominated Lebanon militarily and politically for two decades, as harmful – applauded Israeli attacks against Iran. Many people in Lebanon have told Al Jazeera that they hoped that stability would prevail and that their country would not be brought back to a prolonged conflict or subject to the ferocity and the frequency of the Israeli attacks that it suffered last year.

“People take precautions,” said Karim Safieddine, Lebanese and university political writer in Al Jazeera. “Some prepare their bags.”

No intervention … Yet

Early Friday, Israel struck Iran and murdered Several best commanders of the body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) as well as the best nuclear scientists. Many civilians have also been killed, including children, according to Iranian state media.

A few hours later, Hezbollah published a statement condemning the Israeli attacks and offering condolences to the Iranian officers killed. But analysts say that the declaration was a clear sign that Hezbollah would not enter the battle to support Iran.

“Currently, Hezbollah is not necessary to intervene because Iranian missiles are able to cope with the Israeli occupation,” said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst supporting the group. “However, if the situation degenerates into a large -scale war, nothing prevents the situation from changing.”

Hezbollah, founded in the middle of the Lebanese civil war in 1982 with Iranian support and funding, draws much from its support for the Shiite Muslim community in Lebanon. The group began to shoot rockets on Israel on October 8, 2023, after the start of the War of Israel against Gaza.

The Israeli attacks in Lebanon between October 2023 and November 2024 largely targeted the areas where Shiites live, killing around 4,000 civilians and combatants, according to the Ministry of Lebanon of Public Health.

Many Lebanese are still in shock from the damage left by the attacks of Israel. Some remain moved from their villages in southern Lebanon, which has been razed. Hezbollah’s priority is to ensure that houses and cities are built in the region.

While Israel still reaches targets across the country, mainly in southern Lebanon, but sometimes in the suburbs of Beirut, any resumption of military activity by Hezbollah would probably lead to an even more intense Israeli response and more disrupts reconstruction efforts.

A large part of the Hezbollah military arsenal was allegedly destroyed during Israeli attacks, although analysts think they have kept weapons, including ballistic missiles.

However, the lack of intervention of Hezbollah in the current conflict of Israel-Iran is “proof of their lack of capacity,” said Safieddine. Hezbollah may not have the means to intervene militarily.

The Israeli campaign in Lebanon has also left Hezbollah’s political leaders. Many of the group’s most senior military personalities, including the longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have been murdered. The political hegemony of the group is now questioned by the Lebanese state, with the pressure of the United States and Israel, while it goes to disarm hezbollah and bring the use of force under the exclusive authority of the State.

For the moment, analysts believe that there is a consensus and an understanding between Tehran and Hezbollah that the group will not intervene.

“Interior political circumstances make it extremely difficult for Hezbollah to join Iranian reprisals,” a non-resident main person in the United States based in the United States. “And Iranians recognize that they cannot invite them.”

Battle inside

While Hezbollah is sometimes called Iranian indicator, many experts say that the group is described more precisely as a close ally of the IRGC and the Iranian government with common interests and a similar ideology.

During the heavy bombing of Lebanon in Israel between September and November 2024, Iran’s intervention was relatively limited. Israel invaded southern Lebanon, and although Israeli troops withdrew from most of the Lebanese territory in which they entered during the war, they still occupy five points.

“There is resentment and misfortune towards Iran by Hezbollah because they believe that Iran has dropped them into the recent conflict,” said Blanford. Iran would have asked Hezbollah not to use some of its most deadly weapons, which are analysts linked to the fears of an Israeli response on Iranian territory.

As for Israel’s attacks on Iran, nothing indicates that Tehran asked Hezbollah to get involved, according to Kassir, the analyst thought he was close to Hezbollah. But that could change if an prolonged war attracts actors in the region.

Blanford said he doesn’t expect to “see Hezbollah join at full scale”, but noted that if Israel is starting to fight in its fight against Iran, this could lead to “a certain activity along the blue line”, the line crossing the southern border of Lebanon. If this happens, said Blanford, Hezbollah could seek to carry out operations in the regions occupied by Israeli in Lebanon.

Israel’s plans for Lebanon and Hezbollah remain vague, but the sound of Israeli drones, an omnipresent buzz during the most serious days of war, returned to Beirut’s sky in recent days.

“I wouldn’t exclude [Hezbollah’s intervention] Completely, “said Blanford.” But for the moment, it seems that they will be stated and will keep an eagle eye on what is happening. “”