How Iran could retaliate after U.S. strikes on its nuclear program – National

Iran spent decades to build military capacities on several levels in the country and in the region which at least aimed in part to dissuade the United States from Attack him. Entering Israel War, the United States may have suppressed the last justification to hold them in reserve.

This could mean a wave of attacks on American forces in the Middle East, an attempt to close a key to a key strangulation for world oil supplies or a dashboard to develop a nuclear weapon with what remains of the disputed program of Iran after the American strikes on three key sites.

The decision to retaliate against the United States and its regional allies would give Iran a much larger target bank and a target bank much closer than Israel, allowing it to potentially use its larger missiles and drones. The United States and Israel have much superior capacities, but these have not always been decisive in the recent history of American military interventions in the region.

Since Israel began war with a surprise bombardment of Iranian military and nuclear sites on June 13, Iranian leaders of the Supreme Chief in Down have warned the United States to stay outside, saying that it would have disastrous consequences for the whole region.

It should soon be clear if they were empty threats or a dark forecast.

Here is an overview of what Iran’s next movement could be.

Targeting the Hormuz Strait

The Hormuz Strait is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which about 20% of all the oils exchanged in the Enbout world, and at its narrowest point, it is only 33 kilometers wide. Any disturbance there could send oil prices that hover in the world and hit the American wallets.

Iran has a fleet of fast attack boats and thousands of naval mines that could potentially make the strait impassable, at least for a while. He could also draw missiles from his long bank of the Persian Gulf, as his allies did, the Houthi rebels of Yemen, in the Red Sea.

The United States, with its 5th fleet stationed in neighboring Bahrain, has long undertaken to maintain freedom of navigation in the strait and would respond with very superior forces. But even a relatively brief exchange of fire could paralyze shipping traffic and scare investors, causing an increase in oil prices and generating international pressure for a ceasefire.

American attack bases and allies in the region

The United States has tens of thousands of soldiers stationed in the region, especially in permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, in the Arab Gulf countries just through the Persian Gulf of Iran – and much closer than Israel.

These bases have the same types of sophisticated aerial defenses as Israel, but would have much less warning time before missile waves or swarms of armed drones. And even Israel, which is several hundred kilometers further, could not stop all the incoming fires.

Iran could also choose to attack the main oil and gas facilities in these countries in order to set a higher price for American participation in the war. A drone attack on two main petroleum sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 – claimed by the Houthis but largely attributed to Iran – has briefly reduced the production of oil from the kingdom.

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Activate regional allies

The so-called axis of Iran’s resistance-a network of militant groups through the Middle East, is the shadow of what it was before the attack on the war by Hamas, on October 7, 2023, the attack of Israel outside the Gaza – But he still has great capacities.

The War of Israel at 20 months in Gaza seriously decreased Palestinian groups in Hamas and Islamic jihad, and Israel has mutilated the Hezbollah in Laban last, killing most of its highest leadership and devastating a large part of southern Lebanon, which makes its involvement unlikely.

But Iran could still appeal to the Houthis, who had threatened to resume their attacks in the Red Sea if the United States entered the war and the Allied militias in Iraq. Both have drone and missile capacities that would allow them to target the United States and its allies.

Iran could also seek to react through militant attacks further, because it is widely accused of doing in the 1990s with an attack on a Jewish community center in Argentina which was blamed in Tehran and Hezbollah.

A sprint towards nuclear arms

There may be days or weeks before the full impact of American strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites is known.

But experts have long warned that even the joint American and Israeli strikes would only delay Iran’s ability to develop a weapon, not to eliminate it. Indeed, Iran has dispersed its program across the country on several sites, in particular hardy underground installations.

Iran probably would have trouble repairing or reconstructing its nuclear program while Israeli planes and American war planes run over the head. But he could still decide to put an end to his cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and to abandon the Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation.

North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003 and tested a nuclear weapon three years later, but it had the freedom to develop its program without punishing air strikes.

Iran insists that its program is peaceful, although it is the only non -nuclear non -nuclear state to enrich uranium up to 60%, at a short technical step in the level of weapons of 90%. American intelligence agencies and IAEA assess Iran has not had a military nuclear program organized since 2003.

Israel is widely considered as the only state of nuclear weapons in the Middle East but does not recognize having such weapons.

& Copy 2025 the Canadian press