‘India 25 years behind China…’: Early-stage investor warns of stark contrasts ahead

An early-stage investor sparked debate on LinkedIn with a stark comparison of India’s economic trajectory to China’s. Pushkar Singh, co-founder of Tremis Capital, wrote, “In 2024, the Indian economy, at $3.9 trillion, was around one-fifth of China’s $18.3 trillion. The Indian economy in 2050 would be comparable to China in 2025.”

Singh highlighted the vast gap between the two nations and raised pressing questions about India’s path to economic parity.

Despite this projected economic parity, Singh emphasized that India in 2050 will look very different from today’s China. “We won’t have clean air and rivers like China. China cleaned its air quality in 20 years, but India won’t be able to do the same,” he said.

He also pointed out that Indian cities would remain “chaotic, unplanned, and dirty, unlike China’s gleaming, futuristic ones.”

Singh further noted that India’s infrastructure, including high-speed rail, will not match China’s current advancements. “Our physical infra and high-speed trains won’t be comparable to today’s China,” he stated. He also dismissed the possibility of India becoming a global manufacturing leader like China, adding, “We won’t be the world’s factory and manufacturing powerhouse like China.”

However, Singh highlighted areas where India is expected to match or even surpass China. “Our average life expectancy in 2045 would be more than that of today’s China,” he predicted. He also stated that India’s literacy rates and educational attainment levels will be comparable to China’s by mid-century.

In terms of Human Development Indicators (HDI), Singh expects improvements in infant mortality, poverty reduction, and inequality, bringing India closer to China’s current levels.

Singh pointed out that India’s societal structure would remain distinct from China’s. “Our society would be freer and more democratic than China’s,” he asserted. Unlike China’s manufacturing-driven growth, Singh believes India’s economic rise will be led by the services sector.

“GDP per capita is one indicator of development. Two countries can be vastly different, like China in 2025 and India in 2050, despite having similar GDP per capita. Similar economic growth can result in different development standards,” he explained.

While India may achieve economic figures comparable to China in 2025, Singh makes it clear that the country will follow a different trajectory, shaped by its own unique strengths and challenges.