‘India added $1T in 3-4 years while China added two Indias’: Investor flags growth lag, warns current pace may fall short

India’s $5 trillion GDP dream is within sight but the climb is steep. To leap from its current $3.7 trillion economy to that target by 2027, the country must clock an ambitious 9-10% nominal growth rate annually. That means achieving real growth of 7-8% while keeping inflation moderate. The path demands a rapid surge in investment, productivity, and post-pandemic consumer momentum. But some voices are urging a reality check.

Investor Rajesh Sawhney put the challenge into perspective, noting, “India took 3-4 years to go from $3 trillion to $4 trillion, whereas during that period China added about two Indias to its economy.”

In a post on X (formally Twitter), formerly Twitter, Sawhney cautioned that while “India will be a $5T economy in 2027,” adding another trillion thereafter in just 14-18 months would require 12%+ annual growth. “But our current rate of growth is 6-8% per annum in the past 10 years.”

To speed up, he stressed the need for “deeper reforms and ease of doing business,” a more welcoming approach to foreign capital, and “broader entrepreneurship beyond a few industrial houses.”

His post was a response to Gurmeet Chadha, Managing Partner & CIO at Compcircle, who said that “2027 onwards, we will add $1 trillion GDP every 14-18 months,” and encouraged a long-term view. “Imagine no of cos which will enter $50 Bn to $200 billion club in energy, defence, consumer, fintech, digital n manufacturing. Generational wealth to be made as India hits $10 trillion.”

The conversation drew sharp responses online. When asked if India could grow 20-25% annually from its $4.3 trillion base in 2026-27, Chadha replied, “No at 11-12% nominal GDP growth (6-7% + 4-5% inflation)… at 20-25% we will cross China 😃.”

Some users expressed skepticism. “I have my doubts we will hit 5 before mid of 2027… I feel we will hit 10 trillion around 2035-2037 not before that,” one wrote. Another pointed out, “China has been adding a trillion plus in GDP for a while. Hasn’t exactly resulted in extraordinary returns on the index.”

When one user criticized India’s FDI policies for stifling innovation and concentrating wealth, Sawhney agreed: “These industrial houses have never been able innovate to create new impactful technologies… Only younger and hungrier entrepreneurs will be the true engines of Indian economic growth.”

If India hopes to reach $10 trillion by the mid-2030s, it will need to go beyond just maintaining momentum. Sustained nominal growth of 12-13% — translating to real growth of 8-9% — will be essential. The future hinges on reforms, digital scale-up, investment inflows, and unlocking the full potential of its demographic dividend.