Iran-Israel tensions and an unpredictable Trump to dominate G7 | Business and Economy News

The deployment Israeli-Iran conflict Dera “immensely” the future rally of the leaders of the group of seven, not only because of the dangers of additional escalation, but also because of the “pure uncertainty” of the United States policy under President Donald Trump, according to experts.

The informal G7 group of the seven advanced economies in the world should meet from June 15 to 17 in Kananaskis, Alberta.

Holding the current G7 presidency, Canada is hosting this year. Although the elements of the agenda change importance, according to things that things are evolving in the Middle East, the last crisis should already focus on what was to be a platform for the host of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to present his leadership at home and to a world audience.

G7 countries include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the European Union. In addition, the host country generally invites leaders of a handful of other countries, generally because they are deemed important for global and economic affairs. Canada invited India, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine with a few others.

Carney would probably have hoped to avoid a rehearsal of the last time that US President Donald Trump attended – also in Canada – in 2018. It was then that he refused to sign the final press release – that the G7 countries generally issued in a unit demonstration at the end of the summit – and left early, calling the Canadian Prime Minister of the time, Justin Trudeau, “very dishonest”.

Following this show, Carney planned not to put pressure for a joint statement this year – instead, he was preparing to write his own “chair summary” and to seek an agreement on a set of specific questions. Presenting an image of the unit in a context of imminent and aggressive American commercial prices is the main objective.

But Robert Rogowsky, professor of commercial and economic diplomacy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said there was no way that G7 members could avoid the subject of the Last crisis in the Middle Eastwhich was triggered by massive Israeli assault on military and nuclear sites in Iran early Friday morning – and has since caused reprisals by Iran. The United States said it was not involved in the Israeli strike against Iran, but Trump told journalists on Friday that it had been informed of the attack in advance.

“This attack, this counterattack and the American declaration that it was not involved and its warning to remain far from the American assets as targets is probably the first thing discussed, because it now creates the possibility of a real war in the Middle East. The main neighboring parties will have to decide how to align,” said Rogowsky.

A group “crisis response”?

The G7 “was designed to be a crisis response group with the ability to act and adapt quickly to international challenges … So, in some respects, it is good that they meet this weekend because they will have the capacity to respond quickly,” said Julia Kulik, director of strategic initiatives of the G7 research group, among others, Trinity College of the University of Toronto.

Even before this last escape, the G7 of its 51st year comes “at a time of hinge due to economic disturbances and also due to geopolitical changes,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president and responsible for research at the Asia Pacific Foundation in Canada. Nadjibulla referred to global prices UNLEFHED earlier this year by Trump as well as a changing foreign policy for the United States under its leadership, old alliances were no longer concerned, as well as a “America First” message.

In this context, “Prime Minister Carney tried to meet the moment and be as determined as possible,” added Nadjibulla, highlighting the list of priorities that Canada announced last week before the summit.

This list focuses on the strengthening of world peace and security, in particular by thwarting foreign interference and transnational crime, as well as improving responses to forest fires; Suffering economic growth by improving energy security and providing public-private partnerships to stimulate investments.

The priorities announced, important at the national but also international level, are a “will” of Carney’s intentions, and “the construction of the economy is frontal,” said Nadjibulla.

Conversations on world peace would have focused on the Conflict of Russia-Ukraine And The War of Israel against Gaza But the attention will now rotate in Iran, said Kulik, “and there will be difficult questions from other leaders around the table to Donald Trump on what was wrong with the negotiations and what he is going to do so that Israel de -escalation before things get worse”.

Trump is a “ pieces ” ”

Experts were already looking for thrusts at the next three -day event with the Mercurial Trump present.

“His reactions are very emotional and performative, so it could be any of them and it could decide on the dynamics of the G7,” said Rogowsky. “If he has just wanted to build bridges, then it could be a success, but if he wants to take stock, and it is another world federation of struggle for him, then [it can go anywhere]. With Trump, it’sIts flip corner. “”

But despite the Iran-Israeli confrontation, the G7 will always be an opportunity for Carney to set the tone at a complex moment of tariff wars and to slow down national and global economies. It is also aware that Canada must “increase its political game” and find new ways to strengthen its economy and safety. This is particularly visible in the invitation to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi because Canada had diplomatic tensions with India during the murder in 2023 Sikh on Canadian soil in the recent past.

This shows that Carney is aware that to progress on his articles on the agenda, he “will need to work with countries with which you can have disagreements, but you cannot let these problems dictate the overview,” said Nadjibulla. “Carney prepares the field for a substantial meeting.”

Rogowsky added: “Carney is a globalist and wants to allow Canada to become a force in the unit, in a multilateral system. I consider it a role of bridges manufacturer. Maybe it’s the only guy who can succeed. “

At the same time, he said: “It will be interesting to see how the other leaders approach Trump. This will be a case of Kowtow to the sovereign, where he is the intimidator on the playground and we will stand up.”

For Rogowsky, the “Cayenne Pepper” at the meeting is the expected presence of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was reprimanded by Trump And US vice-president JD Vance in the White House on television live not having been sufficiently “grateful” for American aid.

The three -day event follows Initial meetings in May Between the finance ministers and the governors of the central bank belonging to the G7 countries in Banff.