Iran threatens retaliation following U.S. strikes. An expert breaks down Tehran’s possible targets.

Iran tried reprisals against the United States on Monday for the Trump administration Surprising attacks of the three best nuclear sites in the Islamic Republic during the weekend. The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Seyyed Abbas Aragchi, now in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that Iran “was to answer”.

If Tehran followed his rhetoric, potential movements could include the attack on American military assets through the Middle East, closing the Hormuz Straitwhich is a strangulation point for 20% of global oil and making a so-called asymmetrical war which includes terror and cyber attacks around the world.

American military assets in the Middle East

THE The United States operates Eight permanent military bases in as many countries across the Middle East – QatarBahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait, Egypt and Iraq – with nearly a dozen military facilities in the region, according to the Foreign Relations Council. The chief among these permanent bases is located in Qatar at the Al Udeid air base with around 10,000 members of service staff. Just to the west, Bahrain is home to an American naval base called Bahrain naval support activity with around 9,000 soldiers. It is estimated that 40,000 to 50,000 American soldiers are stationed throughout the region.

“There is a range of options in the own Iranian target game,” Burcu Ozcelik told the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) of the Royal United. “Unlike the targeting by Iran of Israel, which is much more difficult geographically due to the distance, the stock of Iran or the arsenal of short -range ballistic missiles makes American military installations in the Gulf more vulnerable. These are softer targets in this direction.”

Iraq, which shares a porous border of almost 1,000 miles with East Iran, “tends to be considered the next potential front line where the conflict can degenerate,” she said, due to “a number of Shiite paramilitary groups linked to Iran” which can act independently of the Iranian government. Such groups have attacked in the past the US Al Asad Base in Iraq and the American embassy in Baghdad.

American naval active ingredients, which include aircraft carriers and their accompaniment destroyers, as well as various amphibious and other ships, are also potential targets. The USS Carl Vinson Aircraft Coltor Strike Group is currently deployed in the Oman Sea, while President Trump has redirected USS Nimitz Aircraft to the Middle East from the Southern China Sea. The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier is also on the way. Several destroyers of American guided missiles patrol in the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean.

These dozens of ships provide possible targets for various forms of Iranian attacks, including “highly armed speed boats, short -range ballistic missiles, air surface missiles,” said Ozcelik, “which could target American ships or American allied ships, similar to what Houthis have done more exercise.

Hormuz Strait and 20% of global oil

Aside from American military assets, Iran could cause global economic and energy pains trying to stifle the passage in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% to 25% of the world’s oil passes, as well as a similar percentage of liquefied natural gas. The crucial navigable track connects the nations of the Persian Gulf rich in oil in the Gulf of Oman and then in the world. At its narrowest point, it covers only 21 miles in diameter, with Iran in the north and in Oman and the United Arab Emirates in the south.

The Iranian navy could place thousands of mines to damage ships trying to pass. Ozcelik de Rusi said it would symbolize a desperate “last appeal act”, which would mean that Iran is “out of control and spiral”.

“”We can consider this as one of these suicide mission type tactics, “she said.” If Iran should go so far, the implications of reprisals would be very expensive and could also counter the own interests of Iran with regard to its oil export capacities as well as its relations with the Gulf … and its commercial relationship with oil with China. “”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on Beijing on Monday to help Iran close the Strait. On Sunday, Iranian state press television reported that the Iranian Parliament, the Majlis, approved a plan to close the Hormuz Strait, but added that the final decision would be with the Supreme National Security Council.

Oil analysts predict that prices could jump from 50 to 60% if the Hormuz Strait was closed. A barrel of oil is currently negotiated in the range of $ 70 per barrel. It could drop to $ 120. That the organization of oil exporting countries or the OPEC releases more oil to compensate could determine the duration of any possible price shock.

“Even if it is in the short term and the Hormuz Strait is later reopened or Iran does not maintain this threat level for an extended time,” said Ozcelik. “Iran would always undergo the consequences of this potentially, both in terms of status, its reliability with the Gulf, as well as the oil infrastructure of the region, which has implications for the own oil trade in the own sanction of Iran.”

Terrorist and cyber attacks

Ozcelik said that the real long -term prolonged threat lies in “asymmetrical war space and terrorism potentially sponsored by the State”.

Sunday, the national advisory system of American terrorism warned of an “increased threat environment” in the country. The bulletin has not mentioned any specific threat but said “low level cyber attacks Against American networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber-actors affiliated to the Iranian government can carry out attacks on American networks. “”

The warning came after a Hacktivist Pro-Iran group, known as “313 team”, claimed a short breakdown of the Trump Social messaging platform on Saturday. Around 8 pm, users who tried to connect have received an error message that said “the network failed” and “please try again”. The platform is underway.

Around the world, Iran has been involved in attempts at terrorist attacks. More recently, in London in May, the British authorities arrested several Iranians who, according to them, provided for a terrorist plot targeting the Israeli embassy. In 2023, also in London, an Iranian conspiracy to kill two announcements of Iranian news criticizing the regime was also thwarted. Other terrorist plots have been arrested in Cyprus, Germany, Turkey, the United States, Denmark, Belgium and France over the past decade.

Any action of reprisals from Iran, whether direct attacks on American assets or the closure of the Strait, would invite a response from the United States, warned the Trump administration, which could endanger the survival of the Iranian government.

Mr. Trump, after announcing the attacks on Saturday evening, warned Iran against all reprisalsBy saying: “There will either be peace or there will be a tragedy for Iran much greater than what we have witnessed in the past eight days.”