Iran’s nuclear programme is damaged but is it destroyed?

The Fordo site is probably the most spy place on the planet.

The Western Intelligence became a public in 2009 that it housed a secret nuclear installation and that now understanding the damage caused by American strikes will be vital to determine where the conflict goes.

An assessment of the Défense Intelligence Agency Disclosed (DIA) suggested that the main components of the Iranian nuclear program had not been destroyed and that strikes only put Iran’s efforts per month rather than in years.

But it is only an initial and labeled evaluation as “a low confidence” – the label comes because it is the beginning of trying to understand what happened in a place which is deliberately hidden with prying eyes.

DIA is the Pentagon agency that specializes in military information to support operations. He collects large quantities of technical intelligence but is distinct from other agencies such as the CIA.

“The final damage of the battle will take some time,” said the president of the joint chiefs Dan Caine the next day. But what does it mean to destroy or damage the program and how do you find out?

The satellite images of holes and dust reveal little about what really happened underground. And they do not suggest a massive subsidence or a mountain cave.

This probably indicates that even if the United States has used several bombs, the Iranians have used enough reinforced concrete to prevent it from reaching the main hall and destroying the machinery inside. It was the first time that these bombs were used on the operational level, which added to uncertainty.

Despite this, the centrifuge machines, which run at high speed to enrich uranium, are very sensitive, which means that the explosion will probably have crushed it a lot by sending them to turn their axis.

Developing A Clearer Picture of the Damage Will Require Other Forms of Intelligence – Ranging from Seismic Detectors which can analyze the depth and magnitude of underground explosions (Also used to understand Earthquakes), sniffers to look for radiation (which international inspectors say they LIKE LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) which can provides 3D MAPS USING LASER PULSES FROM ARICRAFT OR DRONES TO TRY AND LOOK Inside the mountain.

Information and intercepted communications will also be vital because they could reveal that Iranians discuss damage and its implications. All this will be constantly updated to provide the final evaluation with a higher degree of confidence.

And even if the sites like Fordo have undergone serious damage and made unusable for the moment, as the American officials have claimed, it is different to say that it is the end of the global program of Iran. This is because it could be reconstructed on new sites.

A fleet of trucks was seen strong just before the attack and the crucial question was what they moved and where she left.

All the indications are that Tehran has moved its highly enriched uranium stock to another place. Another mountain known as the “Pickaxe” drew international attention and Iran may also have moved certain centrifugal, although almost certainly not enough to progress at the speed it could have done before the attack.

And even when you have enough highly enriched uranium, there are more steps necessary for the manufacture of a bomb thanks to the weapon and the development of a delivery system. These require an extremely high level of specialized scientific knowledge. And one of the most notable actions in Israel at the start of the conflict was to kill the scientists involved in the program in the hope of lengthening the calendar.

The attack will certainly have given the Iranian program. But how much? Any answer depends on the development of what remains after attacks and will inevitably be an estimate rather than a difficult figure.

All this means that the work of intelligence agencies to try to understand the Iranian nuclear program will become even more intense in the coming months. And if the signs are Tehran secretly reconstructs the program or the race for a bomb, the conflict should start again.