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Israel’s attack on Iran, its nuclear sites and military leaders are part of the wider ambition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reform the dynamics of the Middle East and defeat long-standing enemies.
With the Islamic Republic weakened by the quasi -deafness during the last year of key proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, the final elements – and undoubtedly the most dangerous – of the military strategy of Israel were put into play early on Friday, the local time in Iran.
“Pandora’s box has been widely opened with the Israeli night campaign against Iranian targets – an escalation that risks remodeling the strategic landscape of the Middle East,” said Royal United Services based in London in an information note.
“For Tehran, it is not only a tactical loss, but a deep strategic humiliation,” said the defense and security reflection group.
Netanyahu described her maximalist objectives for the military operation in a video declaration.
“” The Rising Lion operation “is a targeted operation to retreat the Iranian threat to the survival of Israel,” he said.
Raising the spectrum of what he called a future potential “nuclear holocaust”, said that the head of Israel was the time to destroy the Iranian nuclear program before the “Tehran tyrants” can develop an atomic bomb.
“In recent months, Iran has taken measures which it has never taken before to arm this enriched uranium,” Netanyahu said as justification of extraordinary and unprecedented attacks against nuclear installations, military facilities and the assassination of main military and scientific leaders.
Nuclear progress?
Iran’s real progress towards the manufacture of an atomic bomb remains troubled.
Does the country have such a weapon at the moment? In a report published one day earlier by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the conclusion seemed to be, probably not.
Do they have the fuel to make one? Probably. Do they hide things from inspectors? THE Nuclear surveillance check verdict: most certainly.
Israel says that it has reached at least 100 targets, including several nuclear installations. The heads of the Iranian armed forces, his revolutionary guard and his emergency command were all murdered, as well as the six best nuclear scientists – some apparently in their homes alongside their families.
Uncorified images published on PinPoint missile strikes on social networks, with holes struck in the side of concrete buildings where people inside were probably killed, probably as they were sleeping.
Look | The fires burn in Tehran after Israel is launching strikes:
Images published on social networks, which Reuters checked by comparing the scene to satellite and corroborant images, shows Friday on the scene of a fire building in Tehran. Reuters could not confirm when the images were filmed.
Other reports suggest that many military leaders have been killed together by an Israeli missile leaving an underground command bunker.
A few hours before the attacks, Iran had praised its forces at the “highest level” of preparation and there would be a return on investment if Israel attacked – but after the afternoon, no measure of this type had materialized.
The Israeli army reported that an Iranian 100 drone force force was intercepted outside its borders when they flew over the Syrian and Jordanian territory, but the Fars Iranian news agency says that no drone has been launched.
Caught by surprise
A former Minister of the Cabinet of Veterans Affairs of the first Trump administration noted that the disappearance of Hezbollah in Lebanon – thanks to Israeli decapitation hit last summer – combined with the abolition of December of the Assad regime in Syria to open a way for the soldiers of Israel to operate more freely against Iran.
“What struck me was apparently how prepared Iranians were,” Robert Wilkie told BBC News.
Israeli security sources would have informed the local media that Israel had teams of special operators in the field in Iran who launched preventive drone strikes on Iranian ballistic missile launchers to thwart an Iranian response.
Wilkie says the other important factor was American president Donald Trump.
“There is nothing that Trump did who held the Israelis – and I think it was their [Israel’s] Opportunity window. “”
In a social media statement following attacks, the American president offered Iran leaders what he called “a second chance” to conclude an agreement on his nuclear program.
The United States has prompted Iran to end its enrichment activities, the precursor of the creation of nuclear weapons – which Tehran refused to do. Discussions, which have occurred since mid-April, seemed to strike a recent dead end, although another series of discussions was scheduled for Sunday in Oman.
Danny Citrinowicz, principal researcher in Iran at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that he did not think that Tehran leadership was able to retreat.
“Because it is the capitulation-it goes to the West,” he said. “What will happen is probably the opposite, more climbing rather than an agreement right now.”
The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs described the attacks on Israel a “declaration of war” and the Muslim countries accused Israel of “blatant assault”.
The Prime Minister of Qatar said that Israel had destroyed any perspective of peace and had endangered global security.
The Cato Institute, based in Washington, a libertarian thinking group, offered one of the most scathing assessments, exploding the government of Netanyahu to exhibit American military facilities and the citizens of the Middle East at an extreme risk.
“Netanyahu sparked a war with Iran which has no justification,” the group said in a statement.
Iran was not about to carry out nuclear weapons, said the group, but Tehran was trying to maximize its lever effect in the negotiations.
Look | Chris Brown of CBC breaks down the latest developments while Iran warns against “severe punishment” after the Israeli strikes:
In its first response to the targeting of nuclear sites and scientists by Israel, Iran drew more than 100 drones in Israel, none of which has reached their targets. Chris Brown of the CBC says that, although Hezbollah has condemned the strikes of Israel, there was not many reaction of the Iranian allies in the region.
Proxy wars
Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas activists have attacked southern Israel and have killed more than 1,200 people, Israel has led extremely destructive battles with Iranian attorney that surrounded its borders.
While the military and security services of Israel have obtained surprising successes for the sterilization of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the war in Gaza and the amazing cost that Israel inflicted on the civilian population led to international condemnation and political isolation.
More than 55,000 Palestinians died in bombing and many Western countries, including Canada, censored Israel for having cut humanitarian aid and food – deliberately keeping hundreds of Palestinians in almost famine conditions.
Cost of reprisals
Despite the apparent success of Israeli strikes on Friday, analysts noted that Iranian military resources remain large and its ability to inflict damage is high.
“The Iranian response could be delayed or divided into several phases, but its main weapon will be ballistic missiles,” said Royal United Services Institute in its declaration. The reflection group has also noted that Iran could mobilize terrorist attacks to hit soft targets inside and outside Israel.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry announced on Friday that it closed many of its foreign embassies in response to the alleged threat.
Earlier this week, the Axios website reported that Iran had increased the manufacture of long -range missiles to around 50 per week, adding to an already immense arsenal of ballistic missiles.
Last November, Iran pulled around 180 long -range missiles in Israel, mainly in military targets, in response to the Israeli murder of senior officials from Hamas and Hezbollah.
While most of these projectiles have been killed, some have caused damage to Israeli military facilities and in a district on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.
Citrinowicz, the Israeli researcher, says that Iranian leaders could think about the cost of reprisals. While the attacks of Israel have struck certain nuclear locations, others remain intact and functional – for the moment.
“The Iranians have a huge dilemma in front of them,” he said. “They want to attack Israel to rebuild the deterrent equation with Israel – but on the other hand, if they do, they will be exposed to [more] Israeli attacks. “”
