Opposition party leader Lee Jae Myung leads in polls as South Korea votes for new president

The leader of the opposition party of South Korea, Lee Jae Myung, is expected to win the country’s presidential election on Wednesday Gallup Poll quoted by Yonhap.

An electoral victory for the candidate of the Democratic Party would put him in place to be the next leader of the country after having mentioned President Yoon Suk Yeol, and determine the trajectory of South Korea trade negotiations with the United States and politicians on China and North Korea.

Yoon was dismissed After his declaration of short martial law last December and was deleted from the office by the constitutional court of the country in April. This sparked the Snap presidential election.

Lee, who lost Yoon by a thin margin like a razor in the 2022 Presidential electionCurrently has a considerable advance in the opinion poll. The Gallup survey would have shown that 49% of respondents were in favor of the fact that the liberal candidate became president.

This is compared to the 35% collected by his nearest rival, Kim Moon Soo from the Power’s Power Party Conservative, that former President Yoon.

Lee’s admissibility to the presidency was in doubt after being charged with violation of electoral laws, but a final decision on the case had been postponed until after the elections by the High Court of South Korea.

This point of view is taken up by companies such as the Eurasia group, which declared in a note of May 27 that Lee is the “clear favorite” to win the elections, putting its chances of victory at 80%.

Eurasia said that if Lee had moved his position to the political center in order to attract independent and centrist votes, he is likely to pursue a more left -wing program.

“The main surveillance points include the size of a second additional budget and Lee’s approach for American tariff negotiations,” added the company.

Eurasia predicts that if Lee is elected, he will face the double challenges to relaunch the economy of South Korea and to conclude a “package” agreement with the United States by July.

“However, he pointed out the desire to move more slowly in talks with Washington and will probably seek to compare the Korean Agreement against the terms negotiated by other countries, including Japan, before finalizing an agreement,” said Eurasia.

Lee had would have said On May 25, that the deadline for price talks with the United States should be extended. Seoul and Washington had agreed to create a set of transactions on prices by July 8.

In addition, Goldman Sachs, in a note of May 27, also noted that Kim and Lee of the PPP share similarities in their objectives, including economic growth, stable financial markets and improving the affordability of housing.

However, some key differences, underlines Goldman, appear in their economic policy platforms on how to promote growth.

“Mr. Lee recommends tax support for strategic industries, while Mr. Kim prefers to revitalize private entrepreneurship by deregulation and tax reductions. Mr. Lee aims to improve stock markets through governance reforms while Mr. Kim wants to do so mainly by tax incentives.”

Goldman has evaluated that fiscal policy – the use of public spending and taxation to influence the economy – under the DP of the DP is likely to be more expanding than in virtue of Kim, and that the monetary policy of the Bank of Korea will probably compensate in part the gap in the fiscal policy.

The Bok had Recently reduced rates last week to its lowest level since August 2022, saying that it expects economic growth to “decrease considerably”.

Regardless of the result of the elections, the South Korean is likely to appreciate against the US dollar “on the drop in policy uncertainty after the formation of a new government and a large USD weakness against Asian currencies,” added Goldman.