Pacifist Japan seems to be doubling down on arms exports

Japanrenowned for his pacifist The Constitution is now aimed at the world market for arms exports.

Defense Minister Gen Nakatani Earlier, this month told Nikkei that he wanted to promote Japan’s defense exports, reporting a clear change in the country’s arms policy, which has so far been largely limited to the restoration of self-defense forces in Japan, or JSDF.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba also reported a clearer concentration in the defense sector and has become the first prime minister in practice to assist DSEI JapanThe country’s largest defense exhibition.

While the change of position arrives at a time when Global Defense Expenses has been increasing, Japan’s motivations are more related to its security problems than to take advantage of the overvoltage of global arms demand, said CNBC experts.

The main reason for this change is to deepen links and increase the interoperability of Japanese forces with allies and partners, said Rintaro Inoue, research associate at the Geoeconomics Institute, a True True in Tokyo.

By exporting his weapons abroad, a The country is able to improve interoperability With parts of purchase by normalizing maintenance processes for equipment and creating joint training opportunities.

“This justification was the main pillar after the Prime Minister [Shinzo] Abe created the concept of “proactive peace contribution” in 2013 which aims to deepen cooperation with other Western countries in this area, and in particular in the fields of security, “he said.

When the late Abe was in office, he directed efforts to revise the interpretation of article 9 of the Constitution of Japan to allow the JSDF to more actively contribute international peacekeeping efforts and defend the allies.

Japan also wants to develop its industrial defense base, which had been “very poor conditions” before the country changed to increase its defense budget in 2022, said Inoue. Exports will allow him to reach the economies of scale necessary to make domestic production more viable.

Instead of investing in the interior defense database of Japan, the country has largely bought weapons in the United States, such as F-35 and SPY-7 radar systems.

“This created a serious situation among the defense industry based in Japan, and several companies have left industry, especially in the supply chain,” said Inoue. In 2023, More than 100 companies have been reported Having left the defense industry over the past 20 years.

Naoko Aoki, political scientist of the political reflection group based in the United States, said that Japanese defense companies have traditionally worked with a limited domestic demand from the JSDF. Being able to export defense articles means that companies would have greater customers, helping them to develop production capacities, reduce costs and have more flexibility.

“Even if the JSDF needed more, for example ammunition, these companies would not be impatient to invest in new facilities to produce more, if they think that it is a single request. If there was a more stable demand at a higher level, however, they can justify the investment,” said Aoki.

In 2024, Japanese weapons exports amounted to 21 million TIV – only 0.1% of world arms exports – according to the International Peace Research Institute of Stockholm. TIV value or trend indicators is a measure of the volume of international transfers of the main conventional weapons.

In comparison, neighboring South Korea exported 936 million TIV in 2024, with 3.3% of world arms exports, while the TIV for China, the largest exporter of Asian weapons from 2020 to 2024, was 1.13 billion, representing 3.9% of world expeditions.

Defense is attractive as a growth sector, according to the veteran investor David Roche, a strategist of Quantum Strategy. “The demand will exceed supply for a decade,“” He said. Thus, strengthening interior capacity is of capital importance.

Roche said that if nations like Japan remain dependent on the United States, the more transactional approach to the Trump administration will force them to pay for much more their own defense or their defense equipment provided by the United States

Roche underlined the speech of the American secretary Pete Hegseth during the 2025 Shangri-la Dialogue, Earlier this month: “We are asking – and indeed, we insisate – that our allies and partners make their part in defense … NATO members undertake to spend 5% of their GDP in defense, even in Germany.”

“It therefore does not have meaning for the European countries to do so, while the key allies in Asia spend less in defense in the face of an even more formidable threat, not to mention North Korea,” added Hegseth.

“If they are wary of the United States to honor its treaty commitments, then individual nations must ensure their own security and spend a lot of money by doing so,” said Roche.

Japan in 1967 has adopted “Three principles on arms exports“These exports of limited weapons, then extended these principles to a prohibition between exports of arms, with the exception of transfer of military technologies to the United States

The country softened this position under ABE, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida supporting the borders further in 2023.

THE most recent changes Authorizing the defense equipment manufactured in Japan under license of foreign defense companies, including finished products, to export to the country of licenses and from there to third countries.

For example, Japan agreed at the end of 2023 To manufacture – under license – and to export patriotic interceptors missiles to the United States, whose stocks were exhausted after providing these missiles to Ukraine.

Neighbor of South Korea has seen an increase in world interest in its weapon industry And strives to become a large supplier of world weapons. Will Japan be able to compete? Experts differ.

Roche says that Japan has knowledge, skills and technology to be a large weapon supplier, but Inoue d’Iog warns that Japan could face manufacturing problems because of its decrease in the population and its increasing proportion of elderly people.

“I think it is very difficult for Japan to focus again on manufacturing jobs,” he said.

Rand’s Aoki highlighted the still strict regulations. “Japan has the technical capacity to do many things”, but as export regulations remain serious, it will use exports mainly as a tool to strengthen its industrial defense base and its defense relations with countries sharing the same ideas, especially the United States