Polish presidential election too close to call, exit polls suggest

A second exit survey on the presidential election of Poland said that the conservative historian Karol Nawrocki was ahead with 50.7% of the votes against the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski with 49.3%.

The second exit survey overturned sensational the result of an exit survey published immediately after the end of the vote which put Trzaskowski forward with a close advance of 50.3% to 49.7% of Nawrocki.

The official result is expected to be published on Monday morning, said the head of the State Electoral Commission.

Trzaskowski had already won the victory after the first exit survey said he was the winner.

“We have won,” he said. “We have won, although Razor’s” Edge “expression” will forever enter the Polish language and politics, “he added.

His wife, Malgorzata, jokes the crowd: “I am about to have a heart attack”.

Trzaskowski promised to contact the voters who supported his opponent. I will be president of all Polish women and men, “he said.

Nawrocki, on the other hand, told his supporters after the result of the first exit survey that he was too close to call.

“Let’s not lose hope for this night. We will win overnight, the difference is minimal. I think we will wake up tomorrow with President Karol Nawrocki,” he said.

The president of Poland is a largely ceremonial role with a limited influence on foreign policy and defense, but they can oppose his veto to the law and the pro-EU Coalition government of Donald Tusk has no parliamentary majority enough to overthrow him.

The current outgoing conservative president, Andrzej Duda, used his powers to prevent Prime Minister Tusk from proposing key promises of the campaign, in particular the abolition of the political influence of the judiciary and the liberalization of the strict law on the abortion of the country.

If the victory of Trzaskowski is confirmed that the obstacle would be removed and would allow Tusk to cement the place of Poland in the dominant European current.

However, Tusk also faces the opposition of his own coalition of the Party of Conservative Peoples on issues, in particular the abortion and legalization of civil partnerships.

A victory for the national conservative Karol Nawrocki, who is supported by the opposition party to law and justice (worse), would mean a continuous conflict between the government and the president.

He would also revise the PIs, who lost power 18 months ago, giving the party conviction that he can continue to win the legislative elections in 2027.

The two candidates support continuous assistance for neighboring Ukraine, although Nawrocki said that he opposed his entry into NATO and the EU for the moment while Russia continues its war of aggression.

The two men differ from their approach to the EU. Trzaskowski, a former Minister of Europe, supports Tusk’s vision of a Poland at the heart of the dominant European current, influencing decisions through strong relations with Germany and France.

Deputy director of the Civic Platform of Tusk, he has been mayor of Warsaw since 2018.

He is the son of a famous Polish jazz pianist, speaks several languages ​​and is considered by some voters as a member of the liberal elite of the country who is disconnected from ordinary poles.

According to the CBOS survey company, the typical Trzaskowski voter is 30 to 40 years old, is relatively well with liberal left opinions and is open to LGBTQ + rights and migrants. They tend to live in big cities and have positive views of the EU.

Some voters have said that he had tried to present himself “artificially” as a candidate who values ​​patriotism. During the campaign, he took a much more difficult line against illegal migration, which Tusk began to do before winning power in 2023 and he volunteered to do basic military training.

Nawrocki, 42, supports a strong sovereign Poland and does not want the country to give up more powers in Brussels. He opposes climate and migration policies of the EU. It is a conservative Catholic who prioritizes traditional family values.

He was relatively unknown nationally before he was selected by the opposition party and to be their unofficial candidate.

Boxer and passionate amateur footballer, he has often published images of himself, allowing IPs to present him as a solid candidate who would defend ordinary posts and the national interests of the country.

Fan of President Donald Trump, he flew to Washington during the campaign for an extremely brief meeting to get a boost photo of him with the American president at the Oval office.

During the campaign, he was attacked by the government and the media to be morally unfit to be the president of the country, but the allegations did not decrease his support during the last week of the campaign.

During a presidential debate, Nawrocki said he had, like most of the posts, had an apartment. It turned out to be a lie.

Nawrocki was accused of taking advantage of an elderly person vulnerable to acquire his apartment on the advice from a huge delivery of promises of care that was not held. After the scandal, Nawrocki said that he would give the apartment to the charity but that he had always denied the accusation.

Polish news site ONET.PL accused Nawrocki of helping to organize sex workers for customers of Luxury Grand Hotel in the Baltic Sopot balée when working there as security guard.

History was based on anonymous sources, but Onet.pl said that witnesses had sworn that they would repeat the allegations under the court. Nawrocki described a pack of lies to the story and said he would continue the website.

His opponents described him as a football hooligan who admired gangsters and neonazi ultras. Nawrocki did not denote having participated in Hooligan Brawls as a younger man, calling them “noble fights”. He also said that these allegations were an attempt to dirty his reputation.

Some Nawrocki voters told me that they did not believe certain stories about it, saying that these were traditional Trzaskowski support media inventions.