Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns

The members of the NATO Western alliance must prepare for a possible attack on Russia in the next four years, according to the German defense chief.

General Carsten Breuer told the BBC that Russia produced hundreds of tanks a year, many of whom could be used for an attack on NATO members by 2029 or even earlier.

He also insisted that NATO, the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty, remains unified during the war in Ukraine, despite the differences in opinion expressed recently by Hungary and Slovakia.

General Breuer spoke on the sidelines of Shangri-La dialogue, a defense summit in Singapore organized by the Think Tank International Institute of Strategic Studies.

His comments have weeks before a summit in the NATO countries in Hague where they should discuss the defense budgets, among other subjects.

General Breuer said NATO faced “a very serious threat” from Russia, the one he had never seen before in his 40 years of service.

Currently, he said, Russia constituted its forces to a “enormous measure”, producing around 1,500 main fighting tanks each year.

“Not all tanks go [the war in] Ukraine, but this is also going in stock and in new military structures with which the West is still confronted with the West, “he said.

Russia also produced four million laps of artillery ammunition of 152 mm in 2024, and everything was not going in Ukraine, added General Breuer.

“There is an intention and there is an accumulation of actions” for a possible future attack against members of the Baltic State of NATO, he said.

“This is what analysts evaluate-in 2029. So we must be ready by 2029 … If you ask me now, is it a guarantee that is not earlier than 2029? I would say no, this is not the case. So we must be able to fight this evening,” he said.

Many have long feared an attack on NATO state because it could trigger a larger war between Russia and the United States, which is a key member of NATO. Under article 5 of the NATO agreement, any attack on a Member State would mean that other members must come to its defense.

General Breuer distinguished the so-called Suwalki Gap, an area that borders Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Belarus, as one of the most vulnerable.

“Baltic states are really exposed to the Russians, right? And once you are there, you really feel it … in the talks we have there,” he said.

The Estonians, he said, had given the analogy to be close to a forest fire where they “feel the heat, see the flames and feel smoke”, while in Germany “you probably see a little smoke on the horizon and no more”.

General Breuer said that this showed the different perspectives between the European states of the threat of a possible Russian attack.

The vision of Russia on the war of Ukraine was different from that of the West, he said, where Moscow considers war as a “continuum” in a broader conflict with NATO and “therefore tries to find means in our lines of defense and it tests it”.

It has cited recent attacks on submarine cables from the Baltic Sea, cyber attacks against European public transport and unidentified drones identified on German power plants and other infrastructure.

NATO members should therefore strengthen their soldiers, said General Breuer. “What we have to do now is really relying and telling everyone, hey, accelerate … there is more because we need it. We need it to be able to defend ourselves and therefore also to establish a deterrence.”

Questioned by the BBC on NATO cohesion, given the closer relations of Hungary and Slovakia with Moscow, General Breuer insisted that the alliance was still in good health.

He underlined Finland and the decisions of Sweden to join NATO shortly after the start of the Ukraine war. “I have never seen such a unity as now” among nations and military leaders, he said.

“All understand the threat that is currently approaching NATO, we all understand that we must develop a determination of deterrence, in the direction of collective defense. This is clear for everyone. The urgency is seen.”

General Breuer’s remarks are still another sign of an important change in attitudes in Germany to Defense and Russia.

Like many Western countries, including the United Kingdom, it has reduced its investments in its soldiers for many years.

But there has been increasing recognition of the need to overthrow this, even the Green Party coming aboard a recent vote to raise restrictions on the defense expenses of Germany.

But as Western military and political leaders say they are ready for combat, questions remain on the question of whether it is a question of going beyond reality.

It will take years at the military industrial basis of Europe to inform ourselves of respect near the extent of the weapons that Russia produces.

The United States has also lowered, and not construction, its defending commitments to Europe to focus on Indo-Pacific.