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Washington, DC – President Donald Trump is trying a high risk maneuver Iran bombing And then trying to quickly defuse tensions, analysts said in Al Jazeera.
But it remains to be seen if Washington can navigate in a clean outlet Mortal imbrogliowhich has the potential to break out in a large -scale regional confrontation.
Even if Trump avoids a broader war, analysts say that disturbing questions remain on the value of the American military intervention.
On Sunday, the United States joined Israel in its military campaign against Iran, sending B-2 furtive planes to drop bombs on three of the country’s nuclear sites.
Trump supervised military action as part of Washington’s long -term objective from preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon. But the bombing caused a reprisals strike, Iran launching missiles in the United States Al Idid on the basis in Qatar on Monday.
Since then, Trump has announcement A ceasefire between all the parties and said that he had been able to “stop the war”. He credited The bombing with the rally of “everyone”.
But the media wondered if Trump managed to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations, as he said. And Trump denounced Iran and Israel for early violations of the ceasefire.
“As soon as we have concluded the agreement, [Israel] came out and dropped a bombs load, as I have never seen before, “Trump told journalists in an unhappiness on the lawn of the White House on Tuesday.
“We have essentially two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don’t know what they are doing.”
Behind the rhetoric
Despite the Rocky first hours After the announcement of the ceasefire, Israeli and Iranian leaders seem to have fallen online with Trump’s messages on peace.
After an appeal from the American president, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country refrain from new attacks. Israel had “achieved all the objectives of the war,” said his office.
Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, meanwhile, praised the “heroic resistance” of his country. He said Iran would respect the truce and seek to protect his interests by diplomacy.
But experts warn that the speech on peace and diplomacy could hide greater challenges to come.
Tricita Parsi, executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute, a reflection group, told Al Jazeera that Trump’s hard words for the last attack reveal his increasingly public frustrations with Israel, a long-standing American ally.
They could also indicate that the extraction of the United States of the War of Israel with Iran could be more difficult than it seems.
“I think it is crucial to understand that Israel does not want the end of the fighting, and I think that Trump begins to recognize how much America and the interests of Israel in all these differences,” Parsi told Al Jazeera.
Israeli officials have repeatedly pointed out that their military operations against Iran are aimed at causing a broader change in regime, a goal that Trump seemed to approve last week but has since disavowed.
On Tuesday, the chief of staff of the Israeli army, Eyal Zamir, published a statement to the media confirming that Israel had “concluded an important chapter, but the campaign against Iran is not over”.
This point of view can diverge from Trump, according to Parsi. Nevertheless, Parsi thinks that Trump has shown more willingness to tell Israel “no” than many of his presidential predecessors.
“But Trump was unable to support this” no “in an effective way,” added Parsi, pointing to the American president’s interventions in the War of Israel against Gaza.
“He put pressure on the Israelis in the ceasefire in Gaza, but he then gave in and let Netanyahu get out of the ceasefire and never go to phase two of this agreement. If he wants to face Iran, he will have to make sure that he does not repeat this error.”
However, Parsi noted that Trump had shown “remarkable agitation” in his ability to get involved – and then withdraw – the American military for foreign conflicts. Earlier this year, for example, Trump concluded 45 days of air strikes against the armed group of Houthi, based in Yemen, but in May, he had Unveiled a ceasefire.
Risk of a “Bourbier”
For its part, Iran was considered eager to find a ramp To leave the conflict. Several analysts have told Al Jazeera that Tehran would probably take pain to avoid all the actions that could bring the United States back into the fight.
The United States and Iran had been in talks to reduce the Tehran nuclear program. But the initial surprise attack of Israel on June 13 had derailed the negotiations.
Negar Mortazavi, a member of the non-resident at the non-profit center for international policy, said that Iran was still open to the negotiating table.
The country has long denied in search of a nuclear weapon and rather developed its efforts to develop a civil energy infrastructure.
“Iran wants to have a civilian nuclear program,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera. “And I think, if Trump accepts this, then there is a very strong path and possibility for an agreement.”
Trump, however, was vague on what he can accept. He describe The American attack on Sunday as the destruction of “all nuclear facilities and capacities” in Iran, in a series of declarations which did not seem to distinguish between nuclear enrichment for civil energy or for weapons.
His statements also disagreed with a classified report, disclosed to the American media, indicating that the Iran’s nuclear program was damaged but not deleted – and could be rebuilt in a few months.
“Iran never reconstructs its nuclear installations”, Trump wrote In one of the messages on Tuesday.
However, Mortazavi thinks that Iran will probably have no choice but to return to negotiations, even if Trump again takes a maximalist position and is opposed to any enrichment of uranium.
“They could be able to meet somewhere in halfway,” said Mortazavi about the United States and Iran. She added that a possible compromise would be to have a “consortium” of regional countries which would monitor a civil nuclear program.
“The alternative, which is a military conflict and a war, will be devastating for many more civilians,” she explained, “and could potentially turn into a quagmire like Iraq or Afghanistan”.
Sina Azodi, deputy professor of Middle East policy at George Washington University, stressed that Trump’s cease announcement On Monday, could have clues on his approach to any renewed negotiations.
Trump began his statement by writing: “Congratulations to everyone!” Then he finished the missive with: “May God bless Israel, may God bless Iran, may God bless the Middle East, may God bless the United States of America and God bless the world!”
Azodi said that the message – which seemed to put Iran in the same position as Israel – was unprecedented by an American president since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. He noted that Trump seemed to set a “conciliatory” tone.
This feeling was also reflected on the economic front. Trump said on Tuesday that China could continue to buy Iran oil, despite American sanctions that would otherwise limit such a trade.
This has also been interpreted by many analysts as a goodwill offering to Tehran officials, because Trump is looking for a conflict resolution.
“Trump wants to be the one who used the military force, showed force, then quickly ended the conflict,” Azodi told Al Jazeera.
“He certainly does not want a broader conflict in the region, because it is possible that he has resorted to more military intervention.”
Any other military involvement, according to analysts, could ignite tensions within Trump’s base, because many of his “America First” followers oppose military action abroad.
Some have hypothesized that Trump’s strike and exit approach had allowed him to divide the differencesatisfying war Hawks in the Republican Party while rising to those who do not agree with foreign intervention.
“But it is impossible to know what comes next, given its style,” said Azodi. “One day it is good. One day, he is bellicose and angry.”
Long -term success?
If Trump will continue his calls for peace after Sunday attack Clearly.
The American president was on the defensive, while journalists continue to question the effectiveness of American strikes on Iranian nuclear installations like Fordow.
“This place is under rock. This place is demolished,” Trump told journalists on Tuesday.
He called the media to apologize for questioning the success of the mission. “This is all false news,” he said. “These pilots have reached their targets. These targets have been deleted. “
Azodi noted that American strikes seem less successful than the Trump administration has not claimed it. Evidence has surfaced that Iran has moved a large part of its stock of uranium in the contribution of the attack.
What is clear, said Azodi is that the United States has violated international law to strike an installation under the guarantees of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
This could lead Iran to make fun of its threat to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (TNP), releasing it from international obligations which would limit any development of weapons.
“In the short term, yes, Trump can boast [the US strikes] On Truth Social, saying that it “erased” the Iranian nuclear program, “said Azodi.
“But in the long term, you cannot bomb knowledge.
This, he warned, would mean that “it would be impossible to monitor their nuclear program”.
