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The War Ship of the Navy of the Navy of the IRGC Hassan Bagheri and an IRGC speed boat sail along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade, which commemorates the national day of the Persian Gulf, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the city of Seaport, in the city of Bushehr, Province of Bushehr, in the south of Iran, 2024.
Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty images
Dubai, United Arab Emirates – Oil prices have enriched overnight on geopolitical concerns, as American president Donald Trump brought a much more negative tone on the progress of nuclear talks with Iran and announced the withdrawal of American staff from the Middle East.
The developments mark a gross change after several cycles of Ur-Iran Ur-Iran mainly indirect which have been previously described as “positive” and “respectful”.
The Trump administration and Iran have expressed their desire to conclude an agreement. For Trump, he would offer a political and diplomatic victory that the previous administration Biden did not succeed. For Iran, this would desperately mean a relief of the sanctions that have paralyzed its economy.
It now seems more and more improbable.
“They [U.S. military personnel] are moved because it could be a dangerous place and we will see what will happen. … We gave an opinion to move, “Trump told journalists on Wednesday. The Pentagon ordered the withdrawal of troops and non -essential staff of embassies in Baghdad, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Speaking on a podcast with the New York Post, Trump accused Tehran on Wednesday of “delaying”, saying “that I am less confident now than I would have been a few months ago”.
Tehran, on the other hand, accused Washington of not being serious in his commitment and not to respect Iran’s right of enriching uranium for what he insists is peaceful ends.
Risk of conflict
Trump previously warned that the United States or Israel could make air strikes targeting Iranian nuclear installations if negotiations failed. In response, the Iranian Minister of Defense expressed his hope for talks, but also warned of military reprisals if things went south.
“In this case, America will have to leave the region, because all its bases are within our reach. We have access to them, and without hesitation, we will target them all in the host countries,” the Minister told the Iranian press.
On Thursday, the IAEA Council of Governors – The UN Nuclear Card Dog – adopted a resolution declaring Iran in non -compliance with its nuclear guarantees for the first time in almost 20 years.
As it stands, the American envoy of the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is expected to meet on Sunday the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman for new discussions.
Despite the current talks, Israel is Considering military action Against Iran in the coming days, according to sources cited by NBC News.
The potential impact of a military conflict between Israel and Iran – a country of 93 million people which is almost four times the size of Iraq – cannot be underestimated, both for the nations involved and for the global markets, political analysts and economists.
However, several analysts who spoke to CNBC affirm that a military confrontation is still likely to be avoided – for the moment. Some have suggested that recent partial evacuation orders are part of the pressure choreography before the next nuclear talks in American Iran.
The dam n ° 1
Hold-up n ° 1 to an agreement? Enrichment of domestic uranium in Iran, which can be used to generate nuclear energy for peaceful purposes – or build a bomb.
After having initially shown that flexibility on Iran can enrich uranium at lower levels for nuclear energy production, Trump has changed his air, saying that everything that is beyond zero enrichment in the country is unacceptable.
It is a difficult break for Tehran, which requires its right to a civil nuclear energy program. Iran maintains this right under the nuclear non -proliferation treaty, or TNP, which he joined in 1970, and which allows non -nuclear weapons to build peaceful nuclear energy programs.
But concerns abound concerning the real intentions of Iran. Under the Iranian Nuclear Agreement of the Obama 2015 era, officially called the Complete Complete Action Plan, or JCPOA, Iran has committed to caps levels of 3.67% uranium enriched at 300 kilograms – enough to support a civil nuclear program.
But the enrichment of Iranian uranium has reached 60% purity, according to the IAEA – a radically higher level which is a short technical step compared to the level of quality weapons of 90%. “A country rewarding at 60% is a very serious thing. Only countries that make bombs reach this level“IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, said in 2021.
Compromise potential?
Although Trump publicly said that all Iranian domestic enrichment represents a red line, a number of options have been launched which would provide a kind of “compromise” for Tehran.
These include the American proposal that Iran joins a regional nuclear consortium which would allow it to continue to enrich uranium with low levels while committing to zero enrichment at a given time in the future, and that would see it of the nocle ball – but not to dismantle – its nuclear installations.
But the American proposal “is more a series of ideas than a concrete plan, and for the moment seems impracticable,” wrote this week in a note.
“Even if Iran is authorized to enrich themselves provisionally, it will not accept an arrangement which does not safeguard this right to perpetuity.”
A photo taken on November 10, 2019 shows an Iranian flag in the Iranian nuclear power plant in Bushehr, during an official ceremony to launch work on a second reactor at the establishment.
Atta Kenare | AFP via Getty Images
In addition, the Iranians “are also quite irritated that the United States has not engaged substantially in the question of the repair of sanctions,” said Brew. “They ask for clarifications on this issue; Iranians are of course interested in an agreement that brings sanctions for their economy.”
The fact that Iran has openly threatened to hit American assets directly in the region if it is attacked is extremely significant, according to Trita Parsi, executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
This is largely because the missiles that Iran deployed to strike Israel last October “were actually quite effective,” Parsi told “Access Middle East” of CNBC on Thursday.
“If there is a confrontation, and if the Iranians realize their threats to target the American bases, it will eventually become a very, very devastating confrontation,” said Parsi.
“And Trump’s supporters of his own basis are very worried that he puts all his presidency in danger on this issue, when in reality, there is a diplomatic agreement at hand.”
