U.S. economic slowdown still in the cards, Fed says

As president of the American federal reserve Jerome Powell Press conference after the meetingThe subject of prices – in particular, their impact on prices – was recurrent.

“Everyone I know provides for a significant increase in inflation in the coming months of prices because someone has to pay prices,” said Powell. “And a game will come across the final consumer.”

Admittedly, recent economic data has been optimistic, suggesting that the US economy has been able – and could still – escape the prices for the most part.

In May, a better than expected 139,000 jobs have been added And the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Consumer feeling in early June was much more optimistic than forecasts, according to a survey by the University of Michigan. And, above all, Inflation in May – Based on the consumer price index – checked only 0.1% for the month, less than that estimated.

But this positive data chain may have to thank the slow process by which the prices move in the economy.

“It takes a while at the prices to make its way through the distribution chain at the end of the consumer. A good example of this would be the goods sold among retailers today can have been imported several months ago before the prices are imposed. So we start to see effects, and we expect to see more in the coming months,” said Powell.

And even if the officials of the Fed, at present, “do not see the signs” of the American economy weakening, Powell has recognized that growth will slow “possibly”. In other words, stagflation – the toxic mixture of higher price and slower growth – could be a possibility in the coming months.

The song “I had summer in my mind“became viral in 2022.” I had the stagflation in my mind “could be the Fed worm – and the market worm Watchers – this summer.

The American central bank holds prices, sees two discounts
The American federal reserve kept on Wednesday Interest rates in a beach between 4.25% to 4.5%where he has been since December. In addition to the rate decision, said the committee, through its “plot of points”, that two cuts at the end of 2025 are still on the table. Earlier Wednesday, President Donald Trump said that the rate of federal funds should be at least 2 lower percentage points, and again criticized President Jerome Powell, Call it “stupid”.

Inflation increases and reduces growth forecasts
Inflation in the United States, measured by the price index for personal consumer expenditure, will increase beyond 3% in 2025, according to an updated Fed forecast. The central bank had scheduled in March that the PCE reached 2.8%. The PCE came to Only 2.1% in April. The Fed also sees economic growth slow down to 1.4% this year, against a previous estimate of 1.7%. In combination, the two forecasts indicate First signs of stagflation.

Flat markets in us but fall in Asia
American stocks hovered around the flat line Wednesday. THE S&P 500 Slipped 0.03%, the Industrial average Dow Jones closed 0.1% down, but the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.13%. Likewise, oil prices have been little changed. The Asia-Pacific markets fell on Thursday. Hong Kong Hang Seng index Lost up to 2%, lead to drops in the region. In Japan, the actions of Japanese jumped more than 3% after the company has completed its acquisition from US Steel.

Iranian regime change “not an official objective”: Herzog
Wednesday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Dan Murphy de CNBC that a change of diet in Iran “Not an official objective of ours,” And the objective was “to remove the Iranian nuclear program”. Herzog, who accused Tehran of “rushing towards the bomb”, added that a “change in [regime] Can also bring peace to the region. “When asked if there was a diplomatic ramp available to defuse the situation, he said” there is in fact a lot of rear channel “.

Trump says he did not decided Iranian strikes
For the second time in two days, Trump Wednesday met his national security team at the White House In the middle of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. The closed -door rally took place while Trump insisted that he had not yet decided to order an American strike on Iran. On the same day, the United States ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that evacuation flights and cruising ship’s departures were organized for American citizens seeking to leave Israel.

[PRO] Interest of investors for emerging markets
Trump struck developing savings, such as Vietnam and India, especially hard with its “reciprocal” prices. The clock runs on the 90 -day Trump break on these prices – but institutional investors are actually Increasingly enthusiastic about emerging markets, According to the latest survey by Bank of America’s fund manager.

The role of Modi de Trump and India on the American role in the ceasefire of Pakistan

During a phone call Tuesday between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and AssetThe first expressed his frustration with regard to the repeated affirmations of the American president according to which he had played an important role in the brokerage of a ceasefire Between the two countries with nuclear arms.

“Prime Minister Modi has firmly declared that India will not accept and never accept mediation. There is a full political consensus in India on this subject,” said the Minister of Foreign Affairs statement.

Modi “has clearly transmitted” to Trump that the United States did not play any role in the mediation between India and Pakistan and denied any discussion on a trade agreement, said Misri.

The 35-minute call was launched by Trump, he added.