What are the stakes in Strait of Hormuz if Iran-Israel conflict worsens?

The tensions are worth in the Middle East and there are already training effects with an impact on the world’s economies, including with Higher price for petrol at the pumps.

According to a report by Reuters Wednesday, the former Iranian Minister of Economy, Ehsan Khandouzi, said that the oilmen and cargoes of GNL should only transit the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian permission and that this policy should be carried out from “Tomorrow tomorrow [Wednesday] For a hundred days.

Although it was not clear if Khandouzi spoke personally or if his opinions are shared by the regime in Tehran, the challenges of any change in passing in the Hormuz Strait would be important, according to experts.

“It is a huge maritime strangulation point, probably the largest and most important in the world for the world economy,” said Joe Calnan, Vice-President of Energy and a member of Global Canada Affairs Institute.

“It is the unique strangulation point which is most likely to upset the international economy, and there are not many alternative ways.”

Speaking at the top of the G7 in Alberta, leaders said in a joint press release Let them look closely at the conflict.

“We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a cease-fire in Gaza,” the statement said.

“We will remain vigilant in the implications for international energy markets and we will remain ready to coordinate, including with partners sharing the same ideas, to protect market stability.”

The Hormuz Strait is about 30 km wide at its narrowest point and acts as a channel between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Although Oman, in the south, technically controls the navigable track, the location of Iran immediately to the north means that ships could be at risk of attacks or blockages.

Among the many shipping ships that cross the strait every day carrying a wide range of goods, the majority contain crude oil, liquefied natural gas, propane and many other essential energy products to economies around the world.

According to the US Energy Information AdministrationWhich is the statistical branch of the American Department of Energy, 20 million barrels of oil per day crossed the Strait, or around 20% of world consumption, in 2024.

“The incapacity of oil to pass on a major strangulation point, even temporarily, can create substantial delays and increase navigation costs, potentially increase world energy prices”, explains the US Energy Information Administration.

“Although most of the foreign points can be bypassed using other routes – often adding significantly to transit time – some strangulation points have no practical alternatives. Most volumes that transit the strait do not have an alternative means of leaving the region, although there are pipeline alternatives that can avoid the Hormuz strait.”

Takeshi Hashimoto, CEO of the second largest maritime company in Japan Mol, was cited by Reuters while speaking on the sidelines of the Energy Asia conference and describing the importance of the Strait.

“There is no alternative route for expeditions to the Gulf (Persian)-there is no other choice,” he said.

These tensions in the region are rooted in a relatively recent combination of conflicts, in particular Israel’s fight with Hamas in Gazain which Iran was involved in armaments Hamas with military resources and information, while supporting Hezbollah,, Houthi and other militant groups.

Iran has also opposed the terms of a nuclear agreement with the United States.

More recently, Israel has launched strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilitiesThis led Iran to launch counterattacks. The two parties have been engaged in military strikes for almost a week for a week since, finally Draw the more concentrated watch in the United States.

If Iran were to target the Hormuz Strait, it would quickly degenerate the situation.

“It is a difficult option for Iran to use because it would almost certainly present the United States and others in the conflict,” said the main geopolitical advisor Arif Lalani at Strategycorp in a Global News e-mail.

Lalani was previously the Canadian ambassador to Jordan, Iraq, Afghanistan and the United Arab Emirates and was also Director General of Strategic Policy in what is now Global Affairs Canada.

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Most of the oil from the Persian Gulf is for China, Korea, Japan and India, with smaller volumes also in the United States, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

But instability affects global oil markets, not just individual countries.

According to the International Energy Agencymore than a fifth of the world oil goes through the Hormuz Strait daily, and a closure would mean a Large point for the price of oil beyond recent increases.

In most cases, when the price of oil increases, the price of transport too, including petrol for cars, planes, trains, boats and more.

“If we are talking about five to 10 million barrels of oil per day removed from the market, it could have huge impacts worldwide, and not something that is limited in the Middle East,” explains Calnan.

“Energy depends extremely on oil for transport, for heating, for electricity, for petrochemicals and all kinds of things – oil is really important, and it is a major supply.”

The prices of gas in Canada, among other countries, could increase sharply if the expeditions are reduced far from the Strait of Hormuz for fear of the attacks of Iran or its proxies. The oil that Canada consumes comes largely from national, but also international sources, including the Middle East.

A situation where the Hormuz Strait sees less, or no export shipping like oil not only would be bad for Canadians to fill their fuel tanks, but also have wider training effects in the economy.

This could also mean a lost potential possibility for Canadian oil exporters, as closing the strait would mean higher international oil demand.

“If Canada had built pipelines and ports of our west coast, Canada could provide key allies and threatens to disturb Hormuz Strait would be much less – Canada and the West would be stronger,” said Lalani.

“Instead, Canada’s resources are failed on the North American continent.”

Although experts believe that it is unlikely that the Hormuz Strait is used for the leverage at this stage of the conflict, it is important to understand the risks because Iran feels additional pressure.

“They (Iran) would somehow attack the energy security of their own customers, not Israel or the United States by closing the Hormuz Strait. It is more an existential threat to the global economy that Iran would try to use it as a lever, ”explains Calnan.

“I always think that it is extremely unlikely that they choose to do so, but it currently seems that the Iranian regime could be in a really existential threat situation, and this can create fairly extreme options on the table.”