What is the Strait of Hormuz and what could happen to oil prices if Iran shuts it down?

It’s called the most critical point of oil in the world – And Iran holds power.

Washington strikes on Iran The impatient fears that Iran can retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a navigable track between Iran and Oman through which around 20% of the oil and gas consumed on a global scale.

Oil price tumbled Monday after Iran’s initial reprisals did not seem to involve the strait, but analysts warned that the closure of the strategic maritime entry in the Persian Gulf could disrupt the oil flow and Givel the global economyat least temporarily.

“It would be extremely dangerous,” said Kaja Kallas on Monday, the high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy.

If Tehran decides to disrupt or close the Strait, it would be “perilous,” said Burcu Ozcelik, principal researcher at Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute in London, in England.

“”[It] could trigger global economic shock waves and works against Iran’s interests, “said Ozcelik An online declaration.

Where is the Hormuz Strait?

The Hormuz Strait flows between Oman and Iran.

The Strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Sea of ​​Oman. It is only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, but quite deep and large enough to manage the largest oil tankers in the world in the world.

The shipping route is only three kilometers wide in both directions.

How much oil goes into the Strait?

Approximately a fifth of the total oil consumption of the world goes through the strait, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Most of this oil goes to Asia. In 2024, China, India, Japan and South Korea were the main crude oil destinations moving in the Strait in Asia, noted EIA.

“Large volumes of oil circulate in the strait, and very few alternative options exist to move the oil from the strait if it is closed,” noted EIA in an analysis last week.

The oil that goes through the strait comes from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain, while the large liquefied natural gas supplies come from Qatar.

Last year, 20.2 million barrels of crude, condensates and fuel crossed the Strait daily, according to EIA.

The EIA said that if most of the foreign points can be bypassed using other routes, which add significantly to transit times, some, such as the Hormuz Strait, have no practical alternative.

“Most of the volumes that pass the Strait have no alternative means of leaving the region,” wrote EIA.

What could happen to oil prices?

Like the EIA explainsThe incapacity of oil to pass on a major strangulation, even temporarily, “can create substantial tenders and increase navigation costs, potentially increase the prices of world energy”.

The markets will be on board Think Think Tank based in Washington, the DC on Institute of the Middle East, in a online declaration.

Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts The prices of crude oil planned for the Brent could reach $ 110 US a barrel if the Hormuz Strait is blocked. Other analysts said prices could reach $ 120 at $ 130 per barrel (at least temporarily).

“Given the importance of the strait in world oil trade, the impact on oil would be very massive,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior oil analyst at Global Trade Data Company KPLER, in a Online video declaration. “It is sure that we will see three figures.”

However, closing the Strait would be quite a last resort for Iran, added Falakshahi.

Would Iran really close it?

The Iranian Parliament approved a measure on Sunday to close the Strait, said television from the Iranian press, but such a decision would require the approval of the Supreme National Security Council.

Iran has threatened to close the strait in the past, but never did. To do this, would cut its own oil exports and harm its relations with the trading partner China and its Arab neighbors expressing oil.

Suzanne Maloney, vice-president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institute, described the vote on Sunday by the Iranian parliament as “purely symbolic”.

“Such a stage would still paralyze its own beaten economy and endanger its fragile but precious rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states along the Persian Gulf,” said Maloney on the BrooKings website.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called China on Sunday to encourage Iran not to close the Hormuz Strait, citing China’s dependence on Iranian oil.

“It is an economic suicide for them if they do,” said Rubio.

What else could Iran do?

Iran has a fleet of fast attack boats and thousands of naval mines as well as missiles it could use to make the strait impracticable, at least for a while, according to The Associated Press.

The main naval base of Iran in Bandar Abbas is on the north coast of the Strait. He could also draw missiles from his long bank of the Persian Gulf, as his allies did, the Houthi rebels of Yemen, in the Red Sea.

Earlier Monday, Ship data has shown that several oil tankers were turning away From the Strait, although some turn around, according to Reuters.

Connelly, with the The Middle East Institute, noted that if the United States strike adds more volatility to a situation that had already threatened the supply of oil and gas, the Strait “represents only one potential strangulation point for a major energy disturbance”.

“The Hormuz Strait will naturally be under the microscope,” said Connelly.

“But an increasingly volatile situation could lead to unexpected disturbances around critical export infrastructure in the region, whether they would be intentionally or not caused.”