Why China won’t mind a closure of the Strait of Hormuz

While the United States has rained bombs and missiles on Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday – entering the war between Israel and Iran – Beijing seems to be firm in its support for its longtime ally in Tehran.

However, its support will be tempered by its limited weight as a broker of peace in the region, and upward potential if oil strangulation points tighten the United States more than they hurt Beijing.

Beijing has come closer to Iran in recent years, the two countries regularly cooperate military exercises and sign a 25 -year strategic partnership in economic, military and security cooperation in 2021.

Iranian population of almost 91 millionMuch more than the 9.8 million Israel, associated with its abundant reserves of crude oil, made it a natural partner China’s belt and road initiativeThat the Global Times, a spokesperson for the Beijing government, described as a means of “against us hegemony”.

The main economic interest of China lies in its access to Iranian oil and the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important commercial routes for global flows of crude oil.

According to the Energy Information Information, some 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, or a fifth of world consumption, crossed the Strait in 2024. Half of the imports of Beijing oil moved through the key route – using a Bypass system to bypass Western banksShipping services and transactions denominated in Yuan to avoid triggering sanctions.

China will probably keep its “hands out of Iran in all cases,” said Neo Wang, Chinese economist and Stratege to Evercore Isii, because of its limited influence on Israel and its strategic calculation on Washington’s intervention.

Beijing is involved in a trade war with the United States and could find value in any chaos in the Middle East, which “would become greater distraction for Washington,” added Wang.

China has undertaken to support Iran to “safeguard its national sovereignty” shortly after its being Attacked by Israel June 12, which Beijing condemned as a “violation of the sovereignty of Iran, security and territorial integrity”.

But despite this first demonstration of support for Iran, Beijing’s rhetoric has moved to become more measured, unless you denounce the military actions of Israel but focused on brokerage dialogue and a ceasefire.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to his Israeli counterpart In a telephone call, the strikes of Israel were “unacceptable”, but abstained to notice them to “condemn” them in the call.

In another sign of Beijing, recalling his rhetoric on Iran, the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Monday that he was in the common interest of the international community to maintain stability in the Persian Gulf and the surrounding waterways.

Beijing has largely avoided “the direct condemnation of Israel while remaining diplomaticly diplomatic with Iran,” said the Eurasia Group Analysts Political Risk consulting company, because it seeks to “contain tensions and prevent the repercussions of the conflict in the region in the broad sense – which could affect its economic and strategic interests”.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Sunday Called to China To dissuade Iran from closing the Hormuz Strait.

While many expect Beijing to do exactly, some have suggested that a strangion point block could be favorable to China, because it is better prepared to absorb the blow that the American and European Union, and that China could easily turn to other alternative sources of oil.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, China primary oil sources are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq and Oman, although an important part of Malaysia exports is in fact re -formulated or transferred from Iran.

Robin Brooks, principal researcher at the Brookings Institution, said that “China will be happy to see a big peak in oil prices if it destabilizes the United States and Europe”.

Echoing this point of view, Andrew Bishop, World Political Research Manager at Signum Global Advisors, said: “China may not be so furious to pay more for oil from other sources, if that means that the United States suffers even more.”

On Sunday, the Iranian Parliament supported the decision to close the Strait, pending final approval by its National Security Council. Who sent the contracts to the oil More than 2% higher at the start of Asia. US WTI CRODE increased by more than 2% to $ 75.22 per barrel, while Global Benchmark Brent increased by almost 2% to $ 78.53 per barrel.

While the UN Ambassador of China, Fu Cong, had hardwords for the United States United Nations Security Council meeting FU also distinguished Israel on Sunday and called for an immediate cease-fire and at the end of hostilities.

Although China seems to promote stability in the Middle East, it can benefit from the involvement of the United States in the conflict.

The United States strikes Iran “has given China an important subject of discussion: it is America, not China, which threatens world order and peace,” said Shehzad Qazi, CEO of China Beige Book.

China may have the hope of acting as a peacemaker, based on its mediation of a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. Beijing praised reconciliation as a victory for Chinese diplomacy and a sign that Beijing has become a major power broker in the Middle East.

But Israel would probably be skeptical of China’s neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and commitment with Hamas, an Iran ally who attacked Israel in October 2023, and the possibility of angry the United States, analysts said.

“China did not propose to mediate the conflict or offer Iran material support. XI wants, and will have its cake and eat it too,” said Qazi.