Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
A merchant on the New York Stock Exchange Prosecutor’s Office in the new year’s first session on January 2, 2025, in New York, in the United States
Timothy A. Clary | AFP | Getty images
The United States that joins the war between Israel and Iran may seem like a geopolitical flash point that would send the tumbling markets. Instead, investors largely increase the climbing, many strategists believing that the conflict is contained – and even optimistic for certain risky assets.
At 9:30 am in London Monday, Monday MSCI World Indexwhich follows more than a thousand large companies and capitalization medium of 23 developed markets, was only 0.1% lower.
European actions have carried out early losses to trade in firmer territory, with the Pan-European Stoxx 600 slightly higher After a sale at the open. US Stock Futures also checked aboveWith term contracts linked to S&P 500 winning 0.2%.
Assets with safe hatred have also seen a mute response. The yield on the reference 10 year old note won 2 base points, while spot gold Lose 0.2% to negotiate at around $ 3,359 per ounce. The safe SWISS FRANCE was seen for the last time flat against the US dollarwhich increased against several currencies on Monday morning.
In general, market reactions after American strikes were less aggressive, in particular Compared to just over a week ago when Israel launched air strikes against Iran.
“The markets consider that the attack on Iran as a relief from the nuclear threat has now disappeared for the region,” said Dan Ives, director general of Wedbush, adding that he sees a minimum of risks of the Irano-Israeli conflict spreading to the rest of the region and, consequently, more “isolated”.
Although the severity of the latest developments should not be rejected, they are not considered a systemic risk for global markets, other industry experts have echoed.
On Saturday, American president Donald Trump says that the UNITED STATES had attacked Iranian nuclear Sites. Traders are now closely monitoring Iran’s potential countermeasures after American strikes on its nuclear installations.
The potential closure of Iran of the Strait
The Iranian Foreign Minister warned that his country reserved “all the options” to defend his sovereignty. According to the Iranian state media, the country’s parliament has also approved the closure of the Hormuz Strait, a pivotable pivotable for world oil trade, with around 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products that cross it every day.
“It all depends on how Iran reacts,” said Peter Boockvar, investment director at Bleakley Financial Group. “If they accept the end of their military nuclear desires … then it could be the end of the conflict and the markets will be good,” he told CNBC. BOOCKVAR is not of the opinion that Iran will produce the disruption of global oil supplies.
The worst case for the markets would occur if Iran closed the strait, which is unlikely, said Marko Papic, chief strategist of Geomacro Strategy.
“If they do, oil prices go north of $ 100, fear and panic take over, the shares drop ~ 10% minimum and investors rush to shelters,” he said.
However, the markets are now moderate given the “limited tools” that Tehran has at his disposal to retaliate, added Papic.
The idea of closing the Hormuz navigable path was a recurring rhetoric of Iran, but it has never been implemented, with experts stressing that it is improbable.
In 2018, Iran warned that it could block the Hormuz Strait after the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement and restored the sanctions. Similar threats were made earlier in 2011 and 2012, when senior Iranian officials – including the president of the vice of the time, Mohammad -Raza Rahimi – said that the navigable path could be closed if the Western nations imposed more sanctions on Iranian oil exports because of its nuclear activities.
“Tehran understands that, if they were to close the Strait, reprisals from the United States would be fast, punitive and brutal,” added Papic.
In the same vein, the founder of the research of Mardeni, Ed Yardeni, said that the last events had not shaken his conviction on the Haussier American market.
“Geopolitically, we believe that Trump has just restored America’s military deterrent capacities, thus increasing the credibility of his Mantra` Peace through the Force ”,” he said, adding that he targets 6,500 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025.
While predicting that geopolitical developments in the Middle East are a “treacherous exercise”, Mardeni thinks that the region is in a “radical transformation” now that Iranian nuclear installations have been destroyed.
