Newly Created Polymarket Account Earned $436,759.61 From Nicolas Maduro Capture

At best, betting on world events for fun and profit in markets like Kalshi and Polymarket is an innocent way to make reading the news a little more interesting. Unfortunately, some suspect There are thugs who want to spoil the situation for everyone by placing unfair and privileged bets that can corrupt the motives of powerful figures and their advisors. So, with that in mind, when I say this, I don’t want you to be suspicious:

Something that looks a lot like a brand new account on Polymarket invested $30,000 in bets on the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Friday. By the next morning, when Maduro was no longer able to carry out his duties as president of Venezuela due to having been dragged from his bed by the American army and taken out of his country, this account had apparently brought in $436,759.61 according to Herb Scribner of Axios. It is not specified where this number comes from, but a archive snapshot.ph posted on social networks, the amount amounts to $407,920.12. Either way, this lucky person won a lot of money from their totally crazy guess.

And hey, it’s not unthinkable that this could have been a wild guess. Like the The Wall Street Journal noted In an article describing the timeline of Maduro-related bets on Polymarket, there were six contracts involving the question of Maduro leaving, and people placed bets worth $56.6 million on them. $40 million of that action related to him leaving before November 30 or December 31, which he did not do. Nonetheless, the article paints a vivid picture of punters Friday night and early Saturday morning who suddenly coalesced around a hunch that Maduro was about to leave power.

Let’s bet on how long Maduro will be detained in the United States do not seem very favorable to the fallen leader. A release before January 9 had a 1% chance, and a release before the end of 2026 only had a 15% chance at the time of this writing.