Luck or illusion of the puncher in Wilder against Usyk

There remains a small group of fans who believe Wilder can still change any fight with just one clean right hand. This belief is based on who he was earlier in his career. The theory is simple. If Wilder is healthy and willing to take risks, a mistake could still be punished. It’s a narrow argument, but it still follows.

The stylistic problem is that Usyk is designed to reduce exactly that threat. As a left-hander, he keeps his lead foot outside and changes angles immediately after hitting. He stays active with his lead hand, disrupting the rhythm and forcing opponents to reset their feet before they can charge. This reset puts right-handers in a dead zone where electricity cannot be delivered cleanly without time. Against a mover like Usyk, that time rarely exists.

Wilder’s recent form has only added to the skepticism. In his last fight against Tyrrell Anthony Herndon, he relied heavily on his left hand and jab, scoring a seventh-round knockout with no sustained right hand attacks. After the fight, Wilder said long-standing shoulder problems required two surgeries and limited him for years.

This context reframes the puncher’s luck. Even though the shoulder problems are behind him, the version of Wilder seen recently has been more measured and selective. Against Usyk, that creates a tough choice. Patience allows Usyk to control pace and space. Aggression forces repeated resets before the right hand can be thrown.

The fight remains in negotiations for April or May in Las Vegas. The fans’ preference was elsewhere, towards names such as Moses Itauma, Fabio Wardley, Agit Kabayel, Joseph Parker or Frank Sanchez.

The appeal here rests on a single question. Whether a weapon that once defined a career can still work against an opponent designed to take it away. The stylistic gap is not only technical. It’s temporal.