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The coalition of countries supporting Ukraine, including Canada, faces a pivotal moment as it meets in Paris this week to chart a credible path toward an eventual ceasefire and reconstruction.
Prime Minister Mark Carney will attend the meeting of more than 30 leaders, where the key issue of post-war security guarantees will be discussed. These bilateral assurances are intended to dissuade Russia from taking a break and resuming its efforts to conquer all of its Eastern European neighbors in a few years.
The leaders will meet on Tuesday at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron. However, ahead of this, a meeting of the defense chiefs of the coalition countries will take place on Monday.
This follows a meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had with 18 coalition national security and defense advisers in kyiv over the weekend.
Former Canadian Ambassador to NATO and current Defense Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister, David Angell, took part in discussions on the issue of collective security guarantees and their role in the overall peace effort. led by the United States and President Donald Trump was among the main points on the agenda.
Zelensky later told reporters he hoped security guarantees would be finalized at the meeting in Paris.
“During these meetings, there will also be meetings with President Trump’s team,” the Ukrainian president said. “These meetings will also take place in Paris. They will last a day, maybe two, we will see how things develop.”
Zelensky has repeatedly stressed the importance of making security guarantees strong and credible in the face of the ongoing Russian invasion.
“Russia has not shown a genuine desire to pursue peace,” he said in a statement. “Instead, it continues its war of aggression, violence and destabilization, using negotiations as a tactic to buy time. It resorts to provocations and manipulation to derail progress in the peace process.”
Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, said it was remarkable how Ukraine turned European reluctance and hesitation into commitments of military support.
“I think the ‘coalition of the willing’ is the greatest success“s of Ukrainian foreign policy since the start of the war,” Schmidt said, referring to the group of 35 countries friendly to Ukraine, of which Canada is a member.
“This will really offer Zelensky the possibility of someIt is a kind of security guarantee which can prove very significant in the absence of NATO membership. »
The fact that the Ukrainian government appears to have convinced European leaders that Russia poses “an immediate threat” to them “is quite a success because the truth is that we forget that in 2022 and 2023 Europe was resisting this characterization of war,” Schmidt said.
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Concrete security guarantees from Europe and Canada would allow Ukraine to abandon its long-sought NATO membership plan.
Trump separately said he was offering Ukraine “strong security guarantees” as part of a peace framework aimed at ending the war with Russia. He proposed a 15-year time frame for such an agreement, which would have to be ratified by Congress.
Zelensky, however, is calling for a longer delay.
Schmidt said he is skeptical of almost anything that comes out of the White House on Ukraine because the U.S. position has continued to change since Trump returned to power.
“We have seen the Trump administration quickly waver in recent months on its position on the war in Ukraine,” Schmidt said.
A lot of time and effort is spent preparing the ground for the Ukrainian side in possible peace negotiations. The extent to which Russia is willing to compromise is unclear.
While the Kremlin has indicated its willingness to use a U.S.-led peace framework as a “basis” for future talks, it continues to insist on conditions that would require significant Ukrainian concessions, including giving up land in the eastern part of the country.
Russia has also demanded a significant reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army to make it a “symbolic force” and opposes any Western security guarantees including a foreign military presence on Ukrainian soil.
