US attack on Venezuela puts China in focus against Taiwan sabre

China and other foreign governments have strongly criticized THE WE. the dismissal of the Venezuelan leader Nicolas MaduroBut experts are divided on whether the Trump administration’s actions could set the table for the president’s election. Xi Jinping take a step towards Taiwan.

US forces captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on January 3 and brought them to New York on January 3. drug and terrorism charges in a movement with little modern precedent. While the president’s allies Donald Trump Venezuelan leaders have welcomed the ouster of the Venezuelan leader and critics have worried about the example he sets, especially as China adopts an increasingly aggressive posture.

“If Donald Trump can walk into a country and take over…then why is Putin wrong about Ukraine and why can’t China take over Taiwan?” David Roche of Quantum Strategy told CNBC.

Other experts are not convinced.

In an appearance on CNBC on Monday, Carlos Gutierrez, former U.S. Commerce Secretary under President George W. Bush, called relations between China and Venezuela a “tactical convenience” and unlikely to catalyze military action in East Asia.

“I don’t believe China will use this as an excuse or justification to attack Taiwan. It’s just not what they think,” Gutierrez said.

“China will make statements, very aggressive statements. That’s normal. They have to do it, but I don’t see any concrete and significant action from China,” he continued.

The United States asserted what it calls a “Trump corollary” in its recently released report. National Security Strategyreviving the Monroe Doctrine of the 1820s, where the United States had a sphere of influence on the Western Hemisphere.

A sphere of influence refers to a region in which a powerful country seeks to dominate political, military, or economic decisions without formally annexing territory.

The concept echoes Roosevelt’s corollary, which historically justified American intervention in Latin America.

A declaration United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was “deeply concerned that the rules of international law have not been respected”, calling the developments in Venezuela a “dangerous precedent”.

Roche warned that this action could have unintended consequences: “On the one hand, you have created a series of threats, and on the other, you have created a series of authorizations for any dictatorial and autocratic regime, which wants to act to seize territory that is not currently under its control.”

In his New Year’s speechChinese President Xi Jinping said unification with Taiwan was “unstoppable,” echoing U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing could attempt to seize the island by force within this decade.

Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, cautioned against drawing direct parallels.

“Foreign policy analysts will tend to draw analogies with Taiwan and warn that Trump is setting a precedent that Beijing could use against Taiwan. I caution against this impulse,” he said. written the.

Hass said China had avoided direct military action against Taiwan, not out of respect for international law or norms, but had instead relied on a strategy of coercion without violence.

“Beijing will focus more on protecting its interests, condemning U.S. actions, and sharpening the contrast with the United States in the international system than on drawing inspiration from today’s events to change its approach toward Taiwan,” Hass wrote.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a statement after the strike, he said he was “deeply shocked and strongly condemns the United States’ blatant use of force against a sovereign state and its action against its president.”

Beijing called the strike a “hegemonic act” and called on Washington to “stop violating the sovereignty and security of other countries.”

“The Trump administration, more than any other U.S. administration in recent memory, is comfortable with great powers like China and Russia having a sphere of influence,” said Marko Papic, chief macro-geopolitics strategist at BCA Research.

However, this does not mean that Washington accepts that these countries expand their orbits, he added.

Additionally, there does not appear to be any “abandonment” of Taiwan by the Trump administration, Papic told CNBC.Squawk Asia Box“, designating the Arms sale for 11 billion dollars this was announced by Taiwan in December.

The United States does not have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, but the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 urges Washington to provide the weapons necessary for Taiwan’s self-defense.

“Let’s not pretend that the United States is coherent and that the contradiction and hypocrisy of American foreign policy do not exist,” he added. in a separate article.

BCA Research’s Papic said time was on China’s side, and added that it was not obligated to act immediately on Taiwan, while the United States would likely focus on its “western hemisphere.”

“Why risk getting the entire Western world to unite against [China] by actually trying to militarily reunify Taiwan in January 2026? Why take the risk when time will likely be on China’s side over the next ten years as the United States continues to focus on the near abroad and less on the wider world. »

— CNBC’s Chery Kang, Martin Soong and Amitoj Singh contributed to this report.