Uncertainty hovers in Cuba after the capture of the president of Venezuela, Cuba’s closest ally

Cuban officials lowered flags before dawn Monday to mourn 32 security agents reportedly killed during the weekend’s U.S. strike in Venezuela, Cuba’s closest ally, as residents of the island nation wonder what the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro means for their future.

The two governments are so close that Cuban soldiers and security agents were often the Venezuelan president’s bodyguards, and Venezuelan oil sustained the economically struggling island for years. Cuban authorities said over the weekend that 32 people had been killed in the surprise attack, but gave no further details.

The Trump administration has clearly warned that toppling Maduro would help advance another decades-long goal: striking a blow to the Cuban government. Separating Cuba from Venezuela could have disastrous consequences for its leaders, who on Saturday called on the international community to oppose “state terrorism”.

On Saturday, Trump said Cuba’s struggling economy would be hit even harder by Maduro’s ouster.

“It’s going down,” Trump said of Cuba. “It’s going to go down for the count.”

‘I’m going to fight’

Many observers say Cuba, an island of about 10 million people, has had remarkable influence over Venezuela, an oil-rich country with three times as many people.

At the same time, Cubans have long faced constant power outages and shortages of basic foods. And after the attack, they became aware of the once-unimaginable possibility of an even darker future.

“I can’t speak. I have no words,” said Berta Luz Sierra Molina, 75, sobbing and placing a hand on her face.

Although Regina Mendez, 63, is too old to join the Cuban army, she said, “We have to stay strong.”

“Give me a gun and I’ll go fight,” Mendez said.

Maduro’s government has shipped an average of 35,000 barrels of oil per day over the past three months, about a quarter of total demand, said Jorge Pinon, a Cuban energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute.

“The question to which we have no answer, which is crucial: will the United States allow Venezuela to continue supplying Cuba with oil?” he said.

Pinon pointed out that Mexico once supplied Cuba with 22,000 barrels of oil per day before dropping to 7,000 barrels after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mexico City in early September.

“I don’t see Mexico intervening at the moment,” Pinon said. “The American government would go crazy.”

Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist at the American University in Washington, said “the power outages have been significant, and that’s because Venezuela continues to send oil.”

He said Cuba could soon lose that supply, which he said would be “a catastrophe.”

Will Russia fill the oil deficit?

Pinon stressed that Cuba does not have the money to buy oil on the international market.

“The only ally they have left in terms of oil is Russia,” he said, noting that this country sends Cuba about two million barrels per year.

“Russia has the capacity to fill the void. Does it have the political commitment or the political desire to do it? I don’t know,” he said.

Torres also questioned whether Russia would reach out.

“Interference in Cuban affairs could jeopardize your negotiations with the United States on Ukraine,” he said. “Why would you? Ukraine is much more important.”

Torres believes Cuba should open its doors to the private sector and shrink its public sector, a move that could prompt China to step in and provide aid.

“Do they have an alternative? I don’t think they do,” he said.