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Protests in Iran began on a cold December day after several traders showed up at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar along Jomhouri. [Republic] Avenue, closed their stores in protest.
They were tired of seeing Iran’s national currency, the rial, continue to fall. It had already lost almost half of its value over the past year, meaning traders were losing daily and their financial loss was only increasing day by day.
The protests in the capital quickly spread sporadically across Iran and was primarily driven by growing economic pressures and soaring consumer prices.
These commercial hubs, long seen as bellwethers of public opinion, have become hotbeds of frustration over long-running high inflation, stagnant wages and rising costs of living.
From there, scattered demonstrations spread to cities in western Iran such as Azna, Malekshahi and Kermanshah.
Marvdasht, in southern Iran, and Fouladshahr, in central Iran, followed, among others. Some degenerated into violent clashes with security forces, leading to deaths, injuries and numerous arrests.
Economic orientation
There have been many waves of unrest in Iran.
Student and reformist protests from 1999 to 2003 demanded democratic reforms and challenged the country’s ruling radical Muslim academics.
The Green Movement erupted after the disputed June 2009 presidential election, with citizens demanding the removal of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and greater democratic reforms.
The Women, Life, Freedom protests of 2022-2023 followed the controversial death in detention of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the morality police for not wearing her hijab correctly.
But the latest round of protests has been driven less, if at all, by sociopolitical demands and more by economic desperation.
What drives many people to the streets today is not simple unrest, but the heavy toll of empty pockets – deprivation, unpaid bills and the silent erosion of dignity caused by scarcity. It is the weight of absence, the pain of unmet needs, that transforms private despair into public outcry.
Years of strict international sanctions, compounded by domestic mismanagement, have left Iran’s economy in a fragile state. The economic crisis has eroded public confidence and increased discontent, particularly among the working and lower middle classes, who now struggle to meet their daily needs.
Responsiveness and authority
Another aspect of the ongoing protests, which differs from many previous episodes of unrest in Iran, is the state response.
Tehran responded immediately, quickly recognizing the strength of public demand.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, who leads a reformist government, quickly recognized the public’s right to peaceful protest. In a notable departure from previous governments’ harsh responses, Pezeshkian called on the Interior Ministry to engage directly with protesters and stressed the importance of listening to citizens’ concerns.
Alongside calls for dialogue, the government announced a series of policy initiatives aimed at tackling the root causes of public discontent.
These include the development of a new subsidy framework and a comprehensive plan designed to improve living standards.
Furthermore, the appointment of a new governor of the Central Bank of Iran was presented as a step towards stabilizing the currency and restoring public confidence in economic management.
These political gestures were accompanied by broader rhetoric from the country’s leaders, framing the unrest in the context of both domestic difficulties on the one hand and external pressures and foreign interference on the other.
“We are in a situation where there are external pressures from the enemies of the country, and unfortunately also from within the country,” Pezeshkian said.
“Right now, the enemy is pinning most of its hopes on economic pressure to overthrow us. We must remain united and determined to improve our country.”
Other high-ranking figures within the state echoed a dual message: support for legitimate protests, coupled with a strong stance against disorder.
Additionally, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in his first public remarks on the subject: “Protest is justified, but protest is different from rioting. We speak with the protester, and the authorities must speak with the protester; but speaking with a rioter is of no use – the rioter must be made to sit in his place.”
Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani also weighed in to distinguish between economic grievances and disruptive behavior.
In an article on X, he wrote: “We distinguish between the position of protesting traders and the actions of disruptive actors. »
Fears of foreign interference
The state’s message is shaped by concerns about foreign interference. Those fears grew after US President Donald Trump posted on social media that if Iran “shot and killed the protesters,” the United States would “come to their rescue.”
Israeli officials also issued statements of support for the protesters, further stoking suspicion in Tehran. In response, Larijani warned: “Trump should know that American interference in this internal matter would mean destabilizing the entire region and destroying American interests. »
Protests continued in some cities, but have not yet gained momentum and transformed into a sustained or widespread movement as in previous episodes, and some cities have now returned to peace.
Underlying economic pressures, however, remain acute and accumulating.
Inflation continues to reduce purchasing power, while relentless financial volatility makes even the simplest planning precarious for many citizens.
This tension comes on top of a year of upheaval: the breakdown of nuclear negotiations, the unprecedented Israeli-US strikes and the reimposition of United Nations sanctions – shocks that have shaken the nation on all fronts.
Whether or not people take to the streets, the pressure continues to weigh on daily life and, although the state’s willingness to engage with citizens marks a notable change from past approaches, without tangible improvements in living standards, the possibility of nationwide unrest remains close.
As Iran navigates this delicate, multi-layered juncture, the balance between responsiveness and authority will shape not only the trajectory of the reform government but also the broader political landscape.
For now, not every street in the country is witnessing protests, but the grievances have been voiced without question – and the state’s ability to translate its promises into palpable relief will determine whether protesters retreat and a fragile calm can be consolidated, or whether more will take to the streets and it will simply prove the calm before the storm.
