LARRY KUDLOW: What’s wrong with 5% growth?



What’s wrong with 5% growth? Or more?

Just to pick up on my New Year’s message that a Trump economic boom could generate 5%, 6%, even 7% growth, there are numbers today that are uniformly stronger than I thought. Economists take note: Mr. Trump knows the economy better than you. And what’s wrong with growth of 5%, or better?

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for the fourth quarter, which you remember was the closing quarter, was revised upward to 5.4%. Meanwhile, productivity of the economy, which is one of the most important variables, has averaged 4.5% over the past two quarters. This is the hourly production for the non-agricultural economy. Maybe more It is important to note that the productivity of non-financial businesses increased by 3.8% over the last two quarters. Thus, productivity tending around 4% opens the door wide to economic growth of 5% (or more).

And once again, I want to remind everyone of the greatest story ever told: the drop in oil prices is a positive oil shock, which means it’s like a big tax cut for consumers and businesses, that is, Trump’s deflation is replacing Biden’s inflation. And a whiff of oil-driven deflation after nearly 5 years of the Covid era, Biden inflation is a very big positive for the economy. Democrats are absolutely frozen in place and paralyzed by the success of President Trump’s economic policies: supply-side tax cuts, deregulation, “drill, baby, drill” and free and fair reciprocal trade.

As the numbers come in and Team Trump markets them, the prospects for the midterm elections look increasingly rosy for the Republican Party. Treasure Man Scott Bessent speaking at the Minnesota Economic Club (is the Minnesota Economic Club an oxymoron?) reminded people of the wage, productivity and growth benefits of spending all-out on agricultural plants, equipment and structures. Corporate CapEx spending hit 12% in the first three quarters of last year, but even it doesn’t appear to be enjoying the benefits of lower oil prices permeating the broader economy.

There will be some negative CPI impressions future. This shows how important energy is. It’s not just gasoline, although it softens. There are hundreds of other prices affected by the drop in oil prices. And meanwhile, initial jobless claims continue to decline on a four-week average, and the trade deficit in October fell much more than expected.

And here is Mr. Trump and his ‘drill, baby, drill‘purge communism from the Western Hemisphere in the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. And move the center of oil power from the Persian Gulf to the Americas, where it belongs.



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