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Copper has long been an economic bellwether as the metal is widely used across industries, but growing demand makes it a strategic bottleneck that threatens growth, according to S&P Global.
In a report released Thursdayresearchers estimate that demand for the metal will increase by 50% from current levels to 42 million tonnes by 2040, while supply will decline in coming years.
The result will be a deficit of 10 million tonnes, representing a “systemic risk to global industries, technological progress and economic growth,” the report said.
Meanwhile, copper prices have soared to more than $13,000 per metric ton, from just over $8,000 in April 2025, as global tariffs and mining disruptions imposed by President Donald Trump weighed on supplies. Prices of precious metals like gold, silver, palladium and platinum, which also have industrial uses, have also climbed in recent months.
The report highlights four key drivers of copper demand: key economic sectors, the transition to electrification, data centers fueling the AI boom, and high-tech weapons.
Humanoid robots are a fifth potential driver, S&P Global said, citing projections that there would be between 1 billion and 10 billion in operation by 2040.
“The future is not only copper hungry, it is also copper compatible. Every new building, every line of digital code, every renewable megawatt, every new car, every advanced weapons system depends on the metal,” Aurian De La Noue, executive director of critical minerals and energy transition consulting at S&P Global Energy, said in a statement.
“Multilateral cooperation and regional diversification will be crucial to ensure a more resilient global copper system, commensurate with copper’s role as a pillar of electrification, digitalization and security in the AI era. »
Increased mining is needed to ease supply pressure, but it takes on average 17 years for a new mine to produce fresh copper after its first discovery. Indeed, several opposing factors weigh on production, including geology, engineering, logistics, regulations and the environment.
The concentration of copper mining and processing also poses risks, according to S&P Global. For example, just six countries account for about two-thirds of mining production, and China alone has about 40% of global smelting capacity.
Beijing already exploits its dominance in rare earth minerals – which are also key in a range of technologies – as a geopolitical tool in its disputes with rivals like the United States and Japan.
The report warns that copper’s dependence on a handful of countries leaves global supplies and prices vulnerable to disruptions, political shocks and trade barriers.
“Several countries have considered copper a ‘critical metal’ over the past five years, including the United States in 2025. And for good reason,” said Carlos Pascual, study co-chair and S&P Global Energy senior vice president for geopolitics and international affairs..
“Copper is the connecting artery that connects physical machines, digital intelligence, mobility, infrastructure, communications and security systems,” Pascual said. “The future availability of copper has become a matter of strategic importance. »
