Ryan Garcia faces Deeper Water against Mario Barrios

Santos Points to the Barrios, who surpassed Yordenis Ugas in 2023. This version, he says, wins about sixty-five to thirty-five. The advantage comes from control. Distance. The ability to stay calm when the fight slows down and continue doing something useful when it needs to change. Santos is equally blunt about the alternative. The Barrios, who drifted through twelve draws with Manny Pacquiao and Abel Ramos, made it fifty-fifty in a row.

Garcia enters the fight with less evidence than profile. He just lost to Rolando Romero, and Santos views that as pressure rather than momentum. Speaking to MillCity Boxing, Santos treated the fight as a line in the sand for Garcia. Not in the dramatic sense. In practice. Lose here and the excuses run out.

Garcia’s career won’t collapse with a loss. The sport no longer punishes marketable fighters in this way. What would suffer is the path to a lucrative WBC mandatory fight with Conor Benn. This fight relies on timing and perception. A loss to Barrios makes it harder to sell as a significant step, although promoters could still pitch it to casual fans.

For Santos, it comes down to experience. Garcia has never held a world title and has not faced the same array of problems. Barrios did it. Size, patience, and the ability to do different things favor him if he engages in combat instead of coasting. It’s not about speed or hype. It’s a question of who can step in when the plan stops working. If Barrios fights like a professional, Garcia is in for a long night.

Barrios also fought better in his loss to Gervonta Davis than Garcia. He has shared the ring with Keith Thurman, Manny Pacquiao, Yordenis Ugas and Abel Ramos. The experience advantage is heavy.