Iranian regime ‘cornered’ and ‘extremely vulnerable’ as deadly protests spread

We’ve been here before. Mass protests across Iran are shaking the foundations of the Islamic State, with demonstrators risking the wrath of a ruthless regime while the world wonders whether they will succeed in overthrowing a decades-old theocracy.

This is not the case in the past.

But as the current protests — which began as a strike against Iran’s failing economy — approach the two-week mark and continue to expand with a rising death toll, some believe Iran’s ruling clerics face an unprecedented threat, in part because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s moves toward Venezuela.

“Iran is now in the eye of the storm,” said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst and professor of international relations at the School of Economics and Political Science in London.

“The big lesson from the fall of the Venezuelan regime is not Colombia, nor Greenland,” he said. “The Iranians know that Iran is the next target. Not only of the Trump administration, but also of the government of Benjamin Netanyahu. [in Israel]”.

Israel, which has long viewed Iran as an existential threat, launched what it described as pre-emptive strikes on military and nuclear sites in Iran for 12 days last June, with U.S. warplanes attacking three major nuclear facilities.

“They 1768014378 “We view Iran as cornered, extremely vulnerable and weak at this particular moment,” Gerges said. “I think they’re putting increased pressure. They’re hoping that they can actually, fundamentally, bring about regime change in Iran.”

The United States ready to intervene

US President Donald Trump has issued several warnings to Iran over its crackdown on anti-regime protests.

On Friday, he told reporters in Washington that “if they start killing people like they have done in the past, we will get involved.”

“Not boots on the ground, but hitting them where it hurts,” he said.

His comments may well have emboldened protesters who have long campaigned for an end to Islamic rule, even though many do not believe Washington has their best interests at heart.

In a speech in Tehran on Friday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected American threats.

“To leave [Trump] run his own country, if he can,” he said. “In his own country, there are all kinds of incidents.”

He also returned to a familiar script, blaming the protests on rioters and people acting as “mercenaries for foreigners,” raising fears that a greater crackdown on protests than already seen may be on the horizon.

Dozens died during the repression

Amnesty International said on Thursday that authorities had cut off telephone and internet access in large parts of the country.

“Based on the Iranian authorities’ record, we are extremely concerned that they are provoking a new wave of bloody protests,” said Raha Bahreini, an Iran researcher at Amnesty in London.

“They have already killed dozens of demonstrators and passers-by, including children,” she said.

Bahreini said Amnesty’s investigations in 13 cities across eight provinces found that security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and police, used assault rifles and shotguns loaded with metal pellets against protesters.

“What’s different this time is that people are no longer deterred by the horrific shootings. Despite the deadly crackdown, we’ve seen the protests grow day by day.”

Whether this will continue if Iranian security forces launch an even more brutal response remains to be seen.

Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East department at the Chatham House think tank, says Washington’s recent actions will undoubtedly be part of the regime’s calculations.

“There is no easy exit route for Iran’s leaders,” she said. “They are under distinct political pressure from within. The economic policy changes they need to make are not really possible without an agreement with the U.S. administration and that requires diplomacy. It requires compromise.”

Iranians have endured decades of crippling U.S.-led sanctions to curb Tehran’s nuclear program. The perception of economic mismanagement and corruption among Iran’s ruling classes has added to the sense of anger among many protesting Iranians.

“What is quite clear to me is that the entire Iranian system, the political establishment, is in a dead end,” Vakil said. “Without accommodation, without a change in policy, but also in stance towards the protesters and perhaps the governance structure in Iran, things will deteriorate.”