Russia uses its hypersonic missile to send a political message. How dangerous is the Oreshnik?

Not only did Russia use a hypersonic missile to target a site in western Ukraine near the European Union’s border with Poland, but senior officials later touted the power of the nuclear-capable weapon, in what some saw as a clear warning to the West.

The Ukrainian Air Force said the missile, which can be equipped with six warheads each carrying its own submunitions, traveled at a speed of 13,000 kilometers per hour, but did not reveal details of what exactly was hit.

It was the second time Russia used the Oreshnik against Ukraine, a hypersonic missile that was impossible for the country to intercept.

But Moscow’s choice to use it, along with its barrage of other deadly weapons, including ballistic missiles and drones, appears to be more of a political message than a military strategy.

In a post on the social media platform Telegram, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is vice chairman of the country’s security council, likened the Oreshnik strike to a badly needed antipsychotic drug in a world dominated by “deranged actors” and “dangerous psychotics.”

In the same message, he denounced what he called the “kidnapping” of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the seizure of a Russian-flagged Ghost Fleet oil tanker.

“Propaganda weapon”

The leaders of the United Kingdom, France and Germany condemned Russia’s use of the missile, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called it a clear and dangerous escalation.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called it a warning to the United States and Europe.

But on the streets of kyiv, many residents see it as just another deadly Russian weapon. Crews were busy cleaning up debris Friday morning after separate strikes that killed four people, including a rescue worker.

Resident Oleksandr Poliak, 30, says his most immediate concern is the hundreds of Shahed drones that are regularly released on the capital.

“It’s more important to think about this type of weapon than the Oreshnik. The Oreshnik is more like a propaganda weapon,” Poliak said in an interview with an independent team working for CBC News.

“Russia uses this type of weapon whenever it is dissatisfied with certain…negotiations.”

Rarely used nuclear-capable missile

Russia said it launched the Oreshnik missile on a state enterprise in Ukraine on Thursday evening in retaliation for what it called an unsuccessful drone attack on President Vladimir Putin’s residence last month.

Ukraine calls the allegations an “absurd lie” and the United States says the attack did not take place.

The first time Russia used the intermediate-range missile was in November 2024, when it targeted an industrial facility in Dnipro.

In a televised speech hours after that strike, Putin said the Oreshnik was launched in response to the United States and Britain authorizing Ukraine to use longer-range weapons to hit targets in Russia.

He warned that NATO’s aggressive actions were prompting Russia to test the weapon, which he said was impossible to intercept.

What’s so different about the Oreshnik?

Experts say what differentiates the Oreshnik from other ballistic missiles used by Russia against Ukraine is that it travels at hypersonic speeds and can be equipped with six warheads and submunitions that can target separate targets.

Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Defense Studies at King’s College London, says the weapon has three different phases.

The first is the boost phase, during which it is launched and propelled into space. She said this phase should last between two and four minutes.

Once in space, part of the missile separates and falls back to earth, leaving a component called a Multiple Independent Targeting Reentry Vehicle (MIRV), to continue traveling through space, carrying the warheads.

In the third phase, the MIRV adjusts its trajectory before releasing the warheads.

Given that each missile can carry six warheads, as well as submunitions, Miron says it’s possible for “36 objects to fall from the sky.”

Can it be intercepted?

Experts, including Miron, say it is impossible for Ukraine to intercept the Oreshnik because it does not have hypersonic interceptors, and it would be unable to target the weapon as it moves through space.

When munitions rain down, Miron says they could spread over a wide area, making the task extremely difficult.

“It’s like I shoot a bullet and the bullet flies and you try to intercept it by throwing a rock,” she said in a telephone interview with CBC News from Munich.

“You might get lucky, but the chances are close to zero. »

There have been reports that specific interception systems, available to the United States and Israel, could theoretically intercept this type of missile, but Miron says their effectiveness needs to be tested.

“There should be multi-layered air defense,” she said.

“But generally speaking, it’s very difficult to do anything about it.”

Why did Russia launch it now?

Reuters reported that an unnamed senior Ukrainian official said the Lviv Oreshnik was carrying inert or dummy warheads.

Many officials and defense experts believe Russia’s use of the weapon was intended to send a warning to Ukraine’s allies.

“I think this is a clear message to Trump, Macron, Merz and European leaders,” Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said in an interview with Reuters.

“The strike was actually carried out on the border of the European Union. And a similar missile could reach European capitals in six to seven minutes.”

It is unclear how many Oreshnik missile systems Russia has, although Moscow announced last year that it had sent some some of them in Belarusa key military ally of the Kremlin. Moscow has already launched some of its attacks against Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Glen Grant, a retired British lieutenant colonel and defense expert at the Latvia-based Baltic Security Foundation, said it really doesn’t make sense for Russia to use an expensive hypersonic weapon to target the kinds of infrastructure it has managed to hit with drones and other missiles.

Instead, he believes it was used solely for political purposes.

“In other words, if we can fly it that far, we can fly it to Warsaw or we can fly it to Riga, or we can fly it to Tallinn,” he told CBC News in a Zoom interview from Riga, Latvia.

“And of course it has nuclear capability.”