Strained South Africa-US relations face new test

The participation of Chinese, Iranian and Russian warships in military exercises hosted by South Africa could further strain the country’s relations with the United States, which are already at an all-time low.

News24 report suggests South Africa hopes to persuade Iran to become an observer rather than an active participant, this highlights sensitivities over how war games may be viewed by US President Donald Trump.

Ships flying Chinese, Iranian and Russian flags have been seen sailing towards South Africa’s main naval base at Simon’s Town on the Cape Peninsula in recent days.

The week-long exercise began on Friday. It is led by China and involves other members of an alliance of major developing countries, known when it launched in 2006 as Bric.

It takes its acronym from its founding members Brazil, Russia, India and China – and when South Africa joined four years later, an “s” was added to its name.

With the recent addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the alliance is now called Brics+ – and its aim is to challenge the political and economic power of wealthier Western nations.

South Africa’s defense ministry said navies were coming together “for an intensive program of joint maritime security operations, interoperability exercises and maritime protection series.”

It was not specified which countries would participate, only that the aim of the training was “to ensure the safety of maritime transport and maritime economic activities”.

Some commentators question why Brics+ members are conducting military exercises together, given that the group is an economic alliance.

“There are Brics+ members who are politically diametrically opposed to each other and even have border skirmishes between them,” defense analyst Dean Wingrin told the BBC.

This is not the first time that South Africa has held naval exercises with China and Russia. The first was called “Mosi,” meaning “smoke” in the South African Tswana language, and took place in 2019 without much fanfare.

But by the time Mosi II took place in 2023, Russia had launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. and the timing of the exercise was heavily criticized.

“It coincides with the first anniversary of the Russian invasion,” says Wingrin. “So that raised eyebrows because of the timing.”

The current exercise was initially scheduled to take place in November last year and would be called Mosi III. But it was postponed due to the G20 leaders’ summit which South Africa hosted for the first time – and was subject to a name change and an expansion of the invitation.

“Around the middle of last year, we started hearing that this exercise was no longer called Mosi III, but that it would now be a Brics+ maritime exercise called ‘Will for Peace,’” says Wingrin.

But in the current political climate, this expansion could further distance South Africa from the United States, one of its main trading partners.

“South Africa has been under pressure since the Trump administration came back to power. And even before that, when the Democrats were in power, they also perceived South Africa as anti-American,” William Gumede, a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, told the BBC.

And the consequences with the Trump administration have been spectacular. He accused South African authorities of failing to protect the white minority and offered Afrikaners (who are mainly descended from Dutch settlers) refugee status in the United States.

He then imposed higher tariffs and cut aid to South Africa.

His anger was also partly fueled by Pretoria’s role by filing a complaint against Israel before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The US ally strongly rejected allegations of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, calling them “baseless”.

But Pretoria’s overtures and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s May visit to the White House, with a delegation including famous white South African golf players, have failed to ease the barriers. Instead, Ramaphosa was ambushed in the Oval Office. with a series of disputed claims about the killings of white farmers in South Africa.

No South African political party has declared that there is a white genocide in the country. This includes parties that represent Afrikaners and the white community in general.

Yet Trump reiterated these claims when he decided to boycott November’s G20 summit, held in Johannesburg, saying it was a “total disgrace” for Africa’s largest economy to host it.

“Afrikaners are being killed and massacred, and their lands and farms are illegally confiscated,” he posted on his social media platform Truth Social.

Gumede emphasizes that the South African economy, which has been struggling for years, needs access to the American market.

“We cannot afford to alienate the United States. If we add the contribution of the American state, the American private sector as well as American civil society to the South African economy, it is much greater than that of China,” he said.

“US companies in South Africa alone create over 500,000 jobs. If you look at all the Chinese companies in South Africa, to say they create 10,000 jobs, or even 20,000 jobs, would be a generous estimate.”

This differs from government figures released in 2024, which said China had created around 400,000 jobs in South Africa.

“I think the United States is much more strategic for us in real terms than China,” Gumede says.

Last year, the central bank warned that new 30% tariffs imposed by the United States on South African exports could lead to the loss of around 100,000 jobs, with the agriculture and auto sectors hit hardest.

Gumede explained that the African National Congress (ANC), the party that liberated South Africa in 1994, views China as an ideological partner. Russia is also respected for its role in supporting the ANC’s struggle against apartheid and white minority rule.

But the ANC failed to update its foreign policy to include its new coalition partners after losing its parliamentary majority in 2024, he says.

He was forced into a governing coalition that included parties such as the business-friendly, Western-aligned Democratic Alliance (DA).

“When it was a majority party, China was a strategic partner for the ANC government. But now we are in a national unity government, so what we should have done, as a country and as a government, is to come up with a new foreign policy that includes the ANC’s partners, because the ANC is no longer a majority partner.”

The DA, the country’s second largest party, strongly criticized the Will for Peace naval exercise.

In a statement, its defense spokesperson, Chris Hattingh, said this undermined South Africa’s non-aligned foreign policy position.

“This exercise is led by China and includes the participation of Russia and Iran, both heavily sanctioned and both involved in active conflicts.

“Hosting and training such forces cannot be described as neutral or non-aligned. It is a political choice, whether the government admits it or not.”

But Wingrin believes the South African military’s decision to move forward could also be explained by practical considerations.

“South Africa finds itself in a difficult position because years of defunding the defense force and reducing its budget have decimated our defense capabilities,” he says.

“We don’t have as many ships capable of going to sea to go and do exercises in other countries. So we have to take every opportunity we can to train with any country that is willing to come to South Africa.”

South Africa’s Deputy Defense Minister Bantu Holomisa also dismissed the criticism, saying it was an honor for the country’s defense forces to “train with countries that are well equipped in military terms” and that it would boost troop morale.

However, Wingrin warns that this could create problems: “I do not believe that this exercise will result in military action from another country.

“But it could certainly make South African trade negotiations more difficult with certain countries. It’s not an exercise in itself, it’s a question of optics.”

A point of view echoed by other commentators, such as Gumede: “This will certainly be seen as a provocation on the part of the Trump administration.

“This is not a good idea for South Africa given the current geopolitical situation. I think it would have been better if President Ramaphosa had canceled these joint naval exercises.”

Political analyst Sandile Swana, however, is more optimistic, even in light of the recent US military operation aimed at removing President Nicolas Maduro from power and its seizure of tankers leaving the South American country.

“The objective of the exercise is to make the seas safe for international trade, to combat piracy and to create a secure maritime environment. I think in all respects it would be welcomed by everyone,” he told the BBC, adding that relations between the United States and South Africa cannot get worse.

“I see no credible reason why anyone should restrict the call for safe maritime activities. Trump made extreme threats, then turned his back on them as quickly as he made them.”

For Gumede, it is the economic impact of the divide that should be the center of attention.

“We are in real danger: if we do not make our foreign policy more conciliatory towards the United States or more pragmatic, we will be caught between the fights between the United States and China, the United States and Iran, as well as between the United States and Russia.

“And South Africa will be the biggest loser.”