Subriel Matias enters a fight that tests his reliability tonight

Matias enters at 23 and 2 with 22 KOs. He is ranked number two by The Ring at 140 pounds. He won the WBC title with a majority decision over Alberto Puello in July. It was the first decision victory of his career and the first time his pressure did not completely break the opponent. Before that, he held the IBF belt and lost it to Liam Paro in June 2024. The aura is now cracked. Not the big ones. But visible.

Smith is 18 and 0 with 13 knockouts and is ranked seventh by The Ring. He is coming off a clear decision against Mathieu Germain, where he scored three knockdowns. He is disciplined. He is composed. He hasn’t been trained in the kind of fighting Matias demands. This is the test.

There is no mystery in how Matias tries to win. He presses. He is in a hurry. He throws until the other man stops responding. If he wins here, it will be because Smith is forced back for long periods and made to work every second. Matias cannot afford the late slowdown he showed against Puello. If his pace drops again, Smith has the structure to survive it.

The odds list Matias as a minus-160 favorite. This number reflects reputation more than certainty.

If Matias wins, the division opens up again. A fight with interim WBC titleholder Isaac Cruz would be violent and unresolved by design. A unification with IBF champion Richardson Hitchins would be colder and more dangerous.

At 33, Matias has no time to lose. He needs results that close the doors to him.

The card streams on PPV.com starting at 8 p.m. Eastern for $54.99.

If Matias fails to win here, it will be a clear sign that pressure alone is no longer enough.

Weighing in on Friday’s results

• Subriel Mathias: 140
• Dalton Smith: 139.6