Where are all the new cars?

Ministeri adds that Chinese equipment manufacturers, ahead in the software field compared to Western manufacturers in terms of autonomous driving technology, were not present, according to him, because at the moment they cannot launch any vehicles in the United States. CES is therefore simply no longer “the ideal stage for them”.

Andy Palmer, former COO of Nissan and former CEO of Aston Martin Lagonda, goes further. “CES used to be important to automakers because the industry borrowed its technological credibility from Silicon Valley. Today, that relationship has been reversed. Automotive technology is no longer an exciting new thing, that’s to be expected,” he says. “Electrification, software and ADAS are now industrialized technologies. They are no longer conceptual plays that need a Las Vegas stage.”

More importantly, Palmer, Nothard and Ministeri all argue that the center of gravity of the automotive world has shifted – both technologically and geographically – to China, of course. China’s main automobile exhibition, which alternates each year between Shanghai and Beijing, thus becomes THE place where automakers have to stand up and preen.

Indeed, as WIRED highlighted In May last year, Shanghai 2025 wasn’t just a car show: it was a warning to the West. Having poached some of the best automotive talent from the West, China’s auto industry set about showing how it would dominate the world in terms of charging prices, range, design, technology and volumes. Detroit and Munich were put on notice. It was obvious to everyone in the industry where the new power lay.

“Shanghai has become more strategically important than CES for many manufacturers,” says Palmer, “because that’s where the fastest innovation cycles, supply chains and consumer demand are now. If you want to signal the future of automobiles, increasingly that’s where you do it.”

However, Chinese automakers aren’t just showing off on their home turf. So with CES out of the question, they were looking for a replacement. Take a step forward with IAA Mobility Munich, now Europe’s largest automotive convention after death of the Geneva Motor Show. “The Chinese are looking for a platform to present their products outside of China,” Ministeri explains. “When you are Mercedes or BMW and you see China investing in the IAA, you have to be there. So they are making huge investments. This year at the IAA it was the most beautiful stand for Mercedes that I have seen in 10 years at car shows.”

For CES, and perhaps by extension American auto brands, to return to a dominant position in the global automotive sector, another truly seismic shift in vehicle evolution will need to take place. And what’s more, at the rate things are going, an annual event like an auto show will very soon come too late to keep up with the pace of progress in China.

“Look at the delivery times of Chinese manufacturers: from R&D to deliveries on average in two years,” says Nothard. “They put cars on the market very quickly. The average for a traditional manufacturer is seven years. So now you can’t have enough shows to showcase your new product. BYD, they have a whole range of products on the horizon. Masses of new BYD products will be on the market before the next shows even begin to be created.

“CES was at its peak when software, interfaces and software-defined vehicles became the pinnacle of everything in the automotive industry, alongside electric vehicle technology. We’re now past that,” says Nothard. “It will take another big change in the evolution of the car to get CES back on the radar.”