Trump’s threats to Iranian leaders inspire protesters but may not deter crackdown, analysts say

The head of an independent Iranian news publication says President Trump’s warnings are alarming officials in the Middle Eastern country and are encouraging protesters as the biggest demonstrations in years sweep the country.

The head of Iran’s judiciary warned that protesters would face the “maximum” punishment, and the country’s attorney general said anyone taking part in protests would be considered an “enemy of God,” punishable by the death penalty, according to the Associated Press.

Mr. Trump said the United States would respond if protesters were killed. He repeated his warning Friday, telling Iranian leaders not to attack protesters. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said online Saturday that “the United States stands with the courageous people of Iran.”

“I’m sure it really scared a lot of Iranian officials and maybe affected their actions in terms of how they deal with the protesters, but at the same time it inspired a lot of protesters to come out because they know that the leader of the world’s leading superpower supports their cause,” said Maziar Bahari, editor-in-chief of the independent news site Iranwire.

THE protests began in Tehran two weeks ago, in response to the collapse of the Iranian currency and economy. Holly Dagres, a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist newsletter, said the protests were sparked by the same fundamental issues of “systemic mismanagement, corruption or repression” that led to the uprisings after the death of Mahsa Aminiwho was killed by Iranian morality police in 2022.

Since then, they have grown across the countrywith thousands of people filling the streets. Human rights groups say at least 65 people have been killed, while at least two hospitals in Tehran have reported being inundated with patients.

Iranian state media called the protesters terrorists, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a public speech Friday, accusing Iranians of destroying their own streets to please the president of the United States. Civil servants cut off the country’s internet Thursday, cutting Iran off from the outside world.

Dagris said internet access was cut “because the Islamic Republic did not want the international community and its fellow Iranian citizens to see what was happening.”

“I think there is a real concern that with the internet shutdown, the international community won’t pay attention and events on the ground will deteriorate,” said Dagres, who grew up in Iran.

She said she was not sure Mr. Trump’s warnings would deter a crackdown.

“Unfortunately, this is a regime that has been in power for 47 years and has not changed its behavior, nor will it change because the president of the United States is making a threat,” Dagres said. “And we’re hearing and seeing that already with what’s happening… It’s an Islamic Republic that’s backed into its corner, and it’s lashing out. And that’s just what they do best, unfortunately: brutal repressions.”

Bahari said that “many people have called what is happening in Iran now a revolution,” but noted that there is no opposition leader to rally around.

Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah who was overthrown in January 1979, encouraged protesters on social media and said he was preparing to return to the country, but it is unclear how much support he actually has in Iran.